Nitish Kumar and his supporters have been going around consoling themselves that there is no need to read much into the loss of one lok Sabha seat, and that defeat in one constituency does not reflect the mood of the people of the State. In ordinary circumstances, that would have indeed been true. But these are not ordinary circumstances. Nitish Kumar is poised to break away from the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and face the electorate on his own. Besides the RJD and the Congress, he will have to contend with the BJP, which has a strong base in Bihar.
An upbeat lalu Prasad is certain to push his advantage further by launching an aggressive campaign against the Chief Minister in the run-up to the general election. JD(U) leaders annoyed over Nitish Kumar's allegedly high-handed functioning are waiting to seize an opportunity and strike just when it will hurt him the most. Also, given that the Maharajganj setback is the first major hit that his party has taken in eight years, the significance cannot be downplayed.
The JD(U) has offered one other laughable explanation for its defeat. It said that RJD candidate Prabhunath Singh won because he is an extremely popular leader (who has been winning for long) and not because the people wanted the RJD to triumph over the ruling party. There is no doubt that Singh is very popular in Maharajganj, but that alone cannot be the reason for the victory. After all, leaders of larger stature have bit the dust in Indian politics in their backyards. Indira Gandhi lost from Rae Bareilly. Stalwarts of the BJP and other parties, who too were (and some still are) hugely popular, have faced electoral defeats in their careers.
Also, it must be remembered that the JD(U) had not fielded a light-weight in Maharajganj. PK Shahi is an important member of the powerful Bhumihar community, the State's Human Resources Development Minister and a close friend of the Chief Minister. His defeat is, therefore, a personal embarrassment for Nitish Kumar. Add to this the fact that Prabhunath Singh's margin of victory was far bigger than his earlier wins (when he was with Nitish Kumar), and the conclusion is but one: That the Chief Minister has done something seriously wrong to have invited the defeat.
In the rough and tumble of Indian politics, stature alone is not the deciding factor; there are others. If Nitish Kumar does not want to openly confront those factors, it's because he will stand exposed. One of those uncomfortable factors is that the JD(U) is more dependent on the BJP in Bihar than it would like to admit, and that without the latter's whole-hearted backing, its poll calculations will go for a toss. There is no reason to disbelieve reports that, angered by Nitish Kumar's continuing barbs directed at Narendra Modi, the BJP's State cadre only nominally campaigned for the JD(U) candidate in the by-election — and thus worked for his defeat. Perhaps the State unit of the party wanted to teach Nitish Kumar a lesson. But it may be too late for the Chief Minister to learn that lesson, because he has been so vocal and adamant in his illogical opposition to Modi that it is impossible for him to back out even with a face-saver. Nitish Kumar has taken the public stand that his ally (the BJP) had worked unitedly with the JD(U) in the election. His remark is understandable because, if he accepts the sabotage-by-BJP theory, he will have to credit the BJP for influence which he believes only he holds over the electorate. Yet, the fact remains that it is he and his party and not the BJP that have been humiliated.
In this context, senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley's comment that the Maharajganj defeat should provide an ‘indication' of things to come, can be read in two ways. The first is that he is emphasising on the need for the JD(U)-BJP coalition to remain intact, because only then can the challenges in Bihar be met. The second interpretation is that Jaitley is obliquely referring to the disasters the JD(U) will encounter once it breaks off with the BJP-led coalition on the Modi issue. Given that even BJP leaders who favour the continuation of alliance with Nitish Kumar have run out of patience with the Bihar Chief Minister's tirade against Modi, the second interpretation may be more accurate.
The other factor which the Bihar Chief Minister refuses to acknowledge is that his politics of appeasement has upset powerful castes and communities that have been given short shrift during his regime. Nitish Kumar has gone overboard in stitching the Mahadalit-Muslim-Economically Backward Classes alliance, by systematically ignoring the aspirations of upper castes such as the Rajputs. The Yadav community, a large section of which had switched sides from lalu Prasad to Nitish Kumar, too is far from happy. The disgruntlement that has set in provides a ripe occasion for the polarisation of votes of the disenchanted sections of voters. Whether that happens — and happens to what extent — will depend on the sort of leadership the BJP throws up at the national level.
Meanwhile, the first challenge that Nitish Kumar will face once he quits the NDA is not in the lok Sabha but at the State level. The incumbent coalition regime will collapse once the BJP pulls out, leaving the Chief Minister at the mercy of Independents. Even if he gets the required number from the Independents, Nitish Kumar will not be able to govern with the cohesiveness and sense of purpose that marked the heyday of the BJP-JD(U) alliance. Moreover, there is also the real possibility of a flight of leaders from his party once it becomes clear that the Chief Minister is on a sticky wicket. Of course, the JD(U) could also engage in weaning away the ‘anti-Modi' faction within the State BJP. But that may prove easier said than done, because the Bihar unit of the BJP has more or less closed ranks in favour of the Gujarat Chief Minister.