With the DMK quitting the Government, the old buzz has begun afresh: Can the UPA regime survive its full term until May next yearIJ The question rears its head every time a partner of the United Progressive Alliance dumps the coalition.
When Mamata Banerjee moved out, fuming and fulminating, political circles went into a tizzy. Commentators began predicting that the fall of the Manmohan Singh Government was imminent. When Mulayam Singh Yadav appeared with Mamata at a Press conference to jointly oppose the Congress's candidate for the country's President, observers began chattering about a new ‘political realignment' in the making and the sooner than later exit of the Congress-led Government. Yet, nothing earth-shattering happened in the wake of those developments. Why should anyone believe that things will be different this time aroundIJ
The Prime Minister is unlikely to pay a voluntary visit to Rashtrapati Bhavan, walk up to the President and submit his resignation — all because he is heart-broken by the departure of a couple of allies or because he has had enough of pressure politics that has prevented him from functioning effectively. If he does that, the Government indeed goes. The only other way for the regime to fall is on the floor of the House. Either it loses a vote of confidence or a money Bill is defeated. Neither of these appears likely. The Budget is not in peril. And, the principal Opposition is also not showing any interest in tabling a no-confidence motion to topple the UPA. Thus, for now, whether we like it or not, the Manmohan Singh Government remains at the helm.
The ruling combine’s political managers are smug in the knowledge that they have the backing of both the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Neither of them is part of the UPA, yet both of them have been more supportive in time of need than even the UPA’s constituents. They have their reasons for the magnanimity. The SP does not want the Congress to unleash the Central Bureau of Investigation on its leader Mulayam Singh Yadav. Before howls of protest greet the contention, let it be remembered that senior SP leaders themselves have in recent times alleged the Congress's use of the probe agency in an attempt to browbeat the party supremo. As for the SP's biggest foe on earth, BSP chief Mayawati, she wants elections to take place as scheduled. By her calculation, the ruling SP in Uttar Pradesh will have by then further tarnished its image by its failure to tackle law and order, among other things, and be ready for a drubbing.
Clearly, neither the SP nor the BSP has any love for the Congress or the Congress-led UPA Government. Both are mercurial parties and can pull the rug from under the ruling combine’s feet at a time of their choice. That's what makes them dangerous. So far, they have served the Congress well. Will they continue to do so even as the UPA gets further weakenedIJ The SP could go for the kill once it finds the Government is truly tottering and ready for collapse. Mulayam Singh Yadav is a seasoned politician who does not take uncalculated risks. He will not strike if there are chances of the recipient escaping with minor injuries; he will hit when he knows with reasonable certainty that the blow will decapitate the recipient, or at least render the victim motionless for a decent enough time.
It is because of this erring on the side of caution that Mulayam Singh Yadav and his party have swallowed the huge insult that Congress leader and Union Minister Beni Prasad Verma recently delivered to the SP chief. Verma had thundered in a public meeting that the SP supremo was a thief and a dacoit. Not satisfied with that accusation, a smirking Verma added that Mulayam Singh Yadav was backing terrorists. For any self-respecting leader, and more so for one who harbours the hope of becoming Prime Minister some day, that is an absolute insult and grave enough reason to snap support to the Congress-led regime. But Mulayam has so far done nothing of the sort. He waited for a while and gave the Congress time to mend the damage. That promptly and expectedly happened; after meeting the Prime Minister, the errant Beni Prasad Verma expressed regret for the remark. For Mulayam, that has come as a great relief. Had the face-saver not been forthcoming, he would have had to perhaps precipitate a crisis which he fervently believes should not break out now.
But that changes nothing for the Congress-led UPA Government. It is still helpless and gasps for breath while on a ventilator whose valves are controlled by the SP and the BSP. One thing is clear: The sole occupation of the Manmohan Singh Government is to now somehow survive to the fullest extent possible — until May 2014 ideally or at least as close to that as it can manage. Survival, and not governance, is going to be the ruling combine's full-time vocation. The Prime Minister had stopped performing many months ago, so how does it matter if he sails through the remaining few ones in a state of inactivenessIJ Though the repercussions for the country are grave, it does not matter to him.
After all, a patient who is struggling to remain alive cannot be expected to worry about his professional duties or the way he looks in the mirror. He should consider himself lucky to just emerge from the intensive care unit, alive and kicking. Manmohan Singh wants that luck for himself. Will that luck hold out for him or will he fall in the last months of his lapIJ In this cloud of uncertainty, one thing appears certain, though: He won't be Prime Minister the next time around. (God, please don't give us a surprise here!)
Ironically, the longer the UPA regime survives, the weaker it becomes. Congressmen live in dread of what fresh scam a new dawn will break on the Government. They are stricken by the fear of some ally or the other arm-twisting them into submission. They are terrified by the prospect of blundering further in a bid to set right an earlier blunder. They are clueless on foreign policy direction. They are speechless over growing acts of terror. In short, the Congress-led UPA is in a royal mess. It is dying, but slowly and painfully enough to secretly wish for a speedy end. It is only the sadistic tendencies of the SP and the BSP that are preventing the regime from a swift and less agonising end. On humanitarian grounds, the Manmohan Singh Government must be put to sleep at the earliest.