A sense of instability loomed large over the country’s political canvass on Tuesday after the DMK pulled out of the UPA Government, leaving it to the mercy of outside allies — the BSP and SP.
While BSP chief Mayawati may have her own compulsions for not going for early lok Sabha polls, the SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav will have to weigh the pros and cons of delaying the polls, in the backdrop of growing anti-incumbency against the SP-led Uttar Pradesh Government.
Yadav has often claimed that the country might see a general election in September.
The DMK has 18 members in the 543-member lower House. The strength of the ruling alliance has now come down to around 230, but the UPA enjoyed the support of 281 MPs that included those giving outside support. The SP and the BSP account for 22 seats and 21 seats in the lok Sabha respectively out of the UPA’s outside support of 57 MPs.
“No one has pulled out, this is only to blackmail the Government. It is stable,” senior SP leader Ram Gopal Yadav, said, adding the party’s support will continue.
BSP supremo and former Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati also stressed that her party will support the UPA Government in Parliament.
“The UPA Government is not in a minority, we will support it.”
However, these words did not dispel the air of uncertainty. As the Sensex tanked by over 300 points, the Government asserted there was no threat to its stability.
“let me assure everyone that the stability of the Government and the continuation of the Government are not an issue. The Government is absolutely stable and enjoys a majority in the lok Sabha,” Finance Minister P Chidambaram told reporters outside Parliament.
Such assertions sounded hollow in the face of the fact that with just around 230 MPs in the lok Sabha, the UPA will require the support of the BSP and SP on every single issue.
Since both the SP and BSP are not in favour of economic reforms, the lame duck Government cannot expect to make any headway in opening up the economy or introducing any major reform measures in the last leg of its tenure.
Even if the Government decided to cling to power in such a state of inertia, given the tricky nature of UP politics any single issue can bring SP and BSP face to face in a manner that could bring down the curtain on the UPA regime.
Hours after the DMK pull out in the morning, the Union Cabinet cleared the much-hyped Food Security Bill. Now, the Government is expected to go all out to ensure its passage in the Budget Session. This legislation, along with the Direct Cash Transfer Scheme, could be one of the major electoral planks of the Congress. There are clear signs that the Government is also preparing for the inevitable.
Despite all the fire-fighting claims and political management, the day’s developments have further eroded the UPA’s credibility and impacted its decision-making capability.
The Opposition was quick to underscore this point.
“The Government is on the ventilator. It does not have a majority now. It should go,” BJP vice-president Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi told reporters.
Under the circumstances, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seems to have no easy options.
“If the Congress decides to cling to power, governance of the country could be the biggest casualty,” said a political analyst.