Andhra Pradesh, which had played a decisive role in sending the UPA back to power in 2009 by giving it 33 lok Sabha seats, has now emerged as two distinct battlegrounds post its division.
Telangana, the 29th State of India, is having its first election even before its formal inauguration. The State, which will officially come into being on June 2, is witnessing an intense three-cornered contest both in the lok Sabha and Assembly elections between the Congress, regional player Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the TDP-BJP alliance.
The fact that the MIM, with Hyderabad as its bastion, has also fielded a much larger number of candidates this time as well as the presence of many other smaller players like YSRCP, lok Satta and Aam Aadmi Party has also made the electoral scene quite crowded.
There are 267 candidates in 17 lok Sabha and 1,682 nominees in the 119 Assembly seats. With the date of the polling — April 30 — fast approaching, all the parties were intensifying their campaigns. TRS chief K Chandrasekhar Rao has already hit the campaign trail by addressing mammoth rallies in Karimnagar and Nalgonda. like TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu, KCR was planning to use hi-tech methods including the 3D technology to reach maximum number of people in a short period of time.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi has already addressed one impressive rally in Karimnagar and Rahul Gandhi will be visiting Telangana on Monday. Narendra Modi’s whirlwind tour on Tuesday with four different rallies was expected to give the BJP a shot in the arm.
TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu has initially focused on the constituencies with significant population of settlers or the people of Seemandhra origin. In a symbolic move, he chose Malkajgiri lok Sabha constituency, adjoining Hyderabad, to launch his campaign as it has a significant concentration of settler voters.
The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh and consequent sea change in the political landscape has made the past electoral performance of various parties irrelevant. In 2009, the Congress had won 12 of the 17 lok Sabha seats. While the TRS and the TDP, which were allies at the time, shared two seats each, the MIM retained its hold on Hyderabad seat.
In simultaneous Assembly elections, of the 119 seats in Telangana, the Congress was ahead with 50 seats, while the TDP followed closely by winning 39 seats. The TRS, which was TDP ally, won only 10 seats followed by MIM with seven and BJP with two.
There are many factors, which make 2014 polls starkly different. Firstly, the carving out of separate Telangana State has led to identification of different political parties in different colours by voters. The TRS by leading the Telangana movement and the Congress by playing a key role in formation of separate State have emerged as two major champions of Telangana. Though BJP too initially climbed onto the Telangana bandwagon as it also supported the demand as well as the Bill in Parliament, the alliance with the TDP has weaken its pro-Telangana image.
Adding to its woes, the Telangana Joint Action Committee has issued an appeal asking voters to boycott Telugu Desam and YSR Congress Party for their opposition to Telangana in the past.
Apprehension of damage to its pro-Telangana image had forced the Telangana leadership to initially oppose any alliance with the TDP as the yellow party was largely seen as a stumbling block to the formation of Telangana state. But the insistence of BJP’s central leadership on going with the TDP for the sake of a bigger gain in Seemandhra range forced the hands of Telangana leaders.
This compulsion has taken its toll on the morale of the BJP cadre and it is reflected in less enthusiastic cooperation between the two parties at the ground level.
“Telangana has become a reality and now it is irrelevant to talk of who did what in the Telangana movement. People now want development”, said Telangana BJP president G Kishan Reddy indicating a change of party’s strategy.
The Telangana BJP unit, which was hoping to emerge as a bigger political force in the new State, has now been forced to contest only on 45 Assembly and eight lok Sabha seats leaving many aspirants of the party ticket highly disappointed. Same is the story with the TDP and both the parties were now saddled with the problem of rebels in the elections.
At the same time the BJP, despite its tall claims about its strength could not find strong candidates at some place and in fact had to give the ticket to a TDP turncoat in one Assembly constituency in Warangal district as no one from its own ranks was coming forward to contest. Still the party hopes to bag a good number of Assembly seats and increase its strength. The TRS was contesting almost all the seats while the Congress has left one lok Sabha and seven Assembly seats for the CPI.
The TRS has an advantage in a spirited and confident commander K Chandrasekhar Rao, whose command over many languages - including Telugu, Hindi and Urdu - was helping in swaying the electorate in the region. But the Congress was badly lacking any effective communicator and charismatic leader. In fact the presence of half a dozen aspirants of Chief Minister’s chair was only adding to the confusion at the top. By all indication it could be a three-way contest in Telangana - and a hung house.