Despite all odds, Kharge reaches out to Opp leaders for joint candidate
The Election Commission (EC) on Thursday announced July 18 as the date of the 16th Presidential Election in which 4,809 electors, including MPs and MLAs, will vote to elect incumbent Ram Nath Kovind’s successor.
The tenure of President Ram Nath Kovind will come to an end on July 24, 2022, and an election for the next President has to be held before that day. The recent Assembly elections, in which the BJP put up a spectacular performance in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, have given a clear edge to the BJP in the Presidential election.
Meanwhile, despite numbers not in its favour, Opposition parties are likely to meet next week to discuss a probable candidate for the Presidential election.
Sources said Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge has reached out to leaders of some Opposition parties and sought their views for a joint Opposition candidate who can be fielded. Some Opposition parties are of the view that they should not give a walkover to the ruling dispensation but put up a fight. CPI Rajya Sabha member Binoy Viswam said the Congress had reached out to him to discuss a “common candidate”.
“Mallikarjun Kharge called and consulted about a common candidate for the Presidential election. I told him that the CPI would support a common candidate with secular credentials and progressive outlook,” he said. Announcing the Presidential Election date, Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar said the notification for the election will be issued on June 15, the last date for nomination is scheduled for June 29, while the polls to be held on July 18.
The counting of the votes, if needed, shall be done on July 21. Kumar said the EC is fully geared to conduct the election in a free and fair way, while all Covid-related safety protocol would be followed during the voting and counting of votes. He further said no political party will be allowed to issue any kind of whip.
The President is elected by the members of the Electoral College consisting of elected members of both Houses of Parliament, and elected members of the Legislative Assemblies of all States, including National Capital Territory of Delhi and the Union Territory of Puducherry.
However, the nominated members of either Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha or Legislative Assemblies of the States are not eligible to be included in the Electoral College and therefore, are not entitled to participate in the election process.
Similarly, members of the Legislative Councils are also not electors for the Presidential election.The total votes are counted on the basis of their value, which varies from state to state, with an Uttar Pradesh MLA carrying the highest value followed by Maharashtra and West Bengal.
The CEC said the total number of electors for the election will be 4,809 - 776 MPs and 4,033 MLAs. The value of the vote of a MP has gone down to 700 from 708 this Presidential poll due to the absence of a legislative assembly in Jammu and Kashmir.
The total value of votes for MLAs for presidential election is 543231. The total value of votes for MPs is 543200. The total value of vote of electors for the presidential election, 2022 is 108643.
Interestingly, the value of the vote of a Member of Parliament has been fixed at 708 since the 1997 Presidential election. The value of vote of an MP for the first Presidential election in 1952 was 494. It increased marginally to 496 in the 1957 Presidential election, followed by 493 (1962), 576 (1967 and 1969).
As per Rule 7 of the Presidential and Vice-Presidential Elections Rules 1974, voting for Presidential election will take place in Parliament and the premises of State Assemblies including Legislative Assemblies of NCT of Delhi and Puducherry where Legislative Assembly meets for transaction of business, while Rajya Sabha Secretary-General will be the returning officer.
“If there is an emergency, the EC would need to be informed 10 days in advance for MPs to vote in a state assembly or for MLAs to vote in Parliament complex”, Kumar said.
In 2017, the Presidential polls were held on July 17 and the counting took place on July 20. Kovind defeated former Lok Sabha speaker and opposition candidate Meira Kumar by nearly 3,34,730 value votes in the polls.
With the EC setting the ball rolling for the election of the new President, all eyes are now on who will be the BJP’s choice for the top constitutional post as the party with the support of its allies has a clear advantage over the opposition in any likely contest.
The BJP’s empathic win in four Assembly polls, including in all important Uttar Pradesh where the value of vote of each MLA is more than any other State, has only added to its overall advantage.
Though the BJP and its allies in the NDA have fewer MLAs than they had during the 2017 presidential polls, their numbers of MPs have gone up since.
News agency PTI quoted a BJP leader saying ruling NDA already has close to 50 per cent of votes in the electoral college. The alliance is hopeful of getting support from independent regional parties like the ruling YSRCP in Andhra Pradesh and the incumbent BJD in Odisha. The BJP is also counting on support from AIADMK, its ally in the last Tamil Nadu Assembly polls.
The BJP had sprung a surprise by picking then Bihar Governor Ram Nath Kovind, a leader from Dalit community who had been a low profile member of the party, as its choice for the top position in 2017.
There has long been speculation that the BJP may pick a tribal or woman face. However, the BJP top brass has been known to discard conventional wisdom in its choice.
BJP sources added that its senior leaders will reach out to all parties, including the opposition, to form a consensus over the choice for the top constitutional position.
According to latest official figures, the BJP on its own has 392 MPs, excluding four nominated Rajya Sabha members who cannot vote, out of the current strength of 772 members from both Houses, giving it a clear majority.
Though there are three vacancies in Lok Sabha and 13 in Rajya Sabha as of now, the final tally is unlikely to be drastically changed when they are filled before the presidential polls.
The BJP’s numerical advantage in Parliament, which has almost half of the votes in the electoral college which also comprises of all elected MLA, is further enhanced when the strength of its allies like Janata Dal (United), which has 21 MPs in total, Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party, Apna Dal and several from the Northeastern states are added.
However, ally JD (U)’s past remains much of a concern for the BJP. The Nitish Kumar-led party went against its coalition partners in the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections.
The NDA may hope to gather around 5,35,000 votes out of a total of 10,86,431 votes of all electors. This includes 3,08,000 votes with the support of its MPs along with that of its allies. The NDA candidate may get the support of some regional parties including the AIADMK, the BJD and the YSRCP for its candidate in the Presidential poll.
Among the States, the BJP has the maximum of 56,784 votes from Uttar Pradesh where it has 273 MLAs. Each MLA in Uttar Pradesh has the maximum vote of 208. The NDA will get its second-highest votes among States from Bihar where with 127 MLAs, it will get 21,971 votes as each legislator has 173 votes, followed by 18,375 votes from Maharashtra where it has 105 MLAs and each has 175 votes. With 131 MLAs, the NDA will get 17,161 votes from Madhya Pradesh, 16,464 votes of 112 MLAs from Gujarat and 15,982 votes of its 122 MLAs in Karnataka.
The UPA, on the other hand, has a little over 1,50,000 votes from among its MPs and will get around the same number of votes from its legislators in States. Opposition candidates in the past too have been getting a little more than 3 lakh votes in the previous elections for the highest post in the country.