The southwestern monsoon touched Kerala coast five days behind schedule on Friday, promising relief to over 25 crore farmers in the country who depend on monsoon rains for the success of their summer crops.
Monsoon rains are likely to strengthen by June 15 and peak by mid-July after starting with a sluggish march, according to scientists at the Thiruvananthapuram unit of the Indian Meteorological Department. Scientists have predicted a shortfall in average rainfall by five per cent because of the formation of the El Nino, which is expected to cause drought in South Asia.
However, the phenomenon is unlikely to influence monsoon showers in the first phase of the season, they said, adding that it might have an impact as the four-month wet season advanced. The country had received normal and above-normal showers in the past four years. Monsoon had arrived in Kerala on June 1 last year while its onset was late by four days in 2012.
Met officials confirmed the onset of monsoon in God’s own country on Friday after taking into account all the important parameters. They said 13 weather stations in Kerala and one in Karnataka had recorded 2.5 mm rainfall each, one of the main parameters. Westerly wind speeds, the other factor that determined the onset, had also been in line with the start of the monsoon, they said.
The monsoon rains, moving northwards and northeastwards after crossing the Kerala coastline are expected to spread over almost half of the country’s territory by June 15 and to cover entire India by mid-July. “This is the normal schedule and there is no reason to think that there could be a difference this time,” said a scientist.
Weathermen said the showers could strengthen in the 48 hours since Friday. Many places in Kerala and some in lakshadweep and northern Karnataka received normal to heavy rain on Friday. A Delhi report said that central Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and South and central Karnataka might get isolated rainfall before Sunday.
Experts in the Kerala Agricultural University said that the delayed onset of the monsoon was unlikely to have any negative impact on the farming sectorof the country as sowing of rice, pulses and other crops had started in the growing regions of northern, north-western and southern India taking advantage of the pre-monsoon rains.
The Met office in Thiruvananthapuram on Friday said Kerala might be receiving heavy rains accompanied by thunder and strong winds after intensification of monsoon activity. They warned fishermen against venturing into the sea for the next 24 hours as there was a possibility of strong winds with speeds up to 55 kmph.
They also said that Kerala and lakshadweep might receive 7-cm rainfall over the weekend. Kerala had received 2,300 mm rainfall in the last monsoon but the scientists expect it to get 2,040 mm in this season.