Private weather forecaster Skymet on Monday downgraded its forecast for the southwest monsoon this year. Skymet said it believes that there is a 60 per cent chance of a below-normal monsoon, which is now forecast to be at 94 per cent of the long-period average of 880.6 mm rainfall.
The forecast for the June-September period has an error margin of plus or minus four per cent. As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, of the 36 sub-divisions in India, deficiency of rainfall recorded in 25 sub-divisions so far. India received 594.5 mm rainfall as against the normal of 652.2, a deficiency of almost 9 per cent so far.
The Skymet Weather said in terms of geographical risk, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Odisha, Kerala, and North-East India are likely to be hit with deficient rain. The chance of drought over Gujarat and West Rajasthan appears imminent. However, the spatial distribution of rainfall over the rainfed areas of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh has been adequate. Accordingly, food production in the agri bowl of the central parts may not be stressed and skewed.
According to Jatin Singh, Managing Director, Skymet, “The weakness in the monsoon could possibly be attributed to a prolonged negative phase of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean and extended break conditions in July and August. There is still no clear signal about the emergence of IOD in September”.
The southwest monsoon had a timely onset and made a good start with June ending above normal at 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA). But it ran into a “break phase” towards June-end, resulting in July starting on a weak note.
Rainfall that month was marred till July 11. Rainfall in July was 93 per cent of LPA. The monsoon encountered its second “break” phase during the first fortnight of this month. Extended weak monsoon conditions resulted in pan-India seasonal rainfall being nine per cent deficient till date. The below normal status of the monsoon has not improved till now.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Agriculture in its sowing of kharif crops data said that overall, farmers have been able to plant 104 million hectares than the normal area of 101 million hectares as on August 20, higher by 3.2%. However, this is about 1% less than the total area of 104 million hectares sown in 2020.