The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday announced the onset of monsoon in the country after heavy rain lashed the coastal State of Kerala on Wednesday.
The weather forecaster had earlier predicted that there will be delay in the arrival of monsoon by a week and it will hit Kerala on June 9, with an error margin of four days.
“We have declared monsoon onset as all the conditions have been met,” said a senior official. The IMD declared the onset of the monsoon (extending between June - September), if 60 per cent of 14 tracking stations in Kerala and Karnataka report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, and other criteria pertaining to winds are fulfilled.
The weather experts said the conditions are favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some parts of central Arabian Sea, Coastal Karnataka, remaining parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu besides certain parts of south interior Karnataka and southern Andhra Pradesh during the next 48 hours.
During the next 2-3 days the IMD expects monsoon to progress to the western India and conditions are ripe for a strong monsoon in the second half of this month. After below average monsoon for two consecutive years, the IMD predicted an above-normal monsoon, 106 per cent of the long period average (lPA), this year. Monsoon is considered normal when the rainfall is 96-104 per cent of the lPA and is considered above normal when it is 105-110 per cent of the lPA. While the rain would be 107 per cent of normal average in July, it would be 104 per cent in August.
The predictions have been explained on the basis of the recent changes leading to the weakening of the rain depleting El Nino conditions and promising chances of its counterpart la Nina conditions developing during the monsoon.
The situation might even result in the monsoon to extend beyond its normal withdrawal date of end-September, predicted the scientists.
They further said this season may witness the heaviest monsoon since 1994. More importantly, it is expected to be well distributed too.
Meanwhile, the weather scientists do not foresee much relief for north/ north-west India, saying there will not be any significant change in maximum temperatures ( between 45°- 47°C) in this region for the next 2-3 days.
As per the IMD, heat wave conditions are likely to prevail in certain parts of Eastern and Western parts of Rajasthan, West Madhya Pradesh. Similar conditions are also expected in isolated places over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Gujarat.