The paddy sowing season across north and east India is likely to be adversely impacted due to the prolonged break in monsoon. Only isolated rainfall is expected over the Indo-Gangetic region till the first week of next month, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday.
The IMD data showed that India has received 9 per cent more rainfall, 465.6 mm, as against the normal of 428.3 mm, so far since the onset of the southwest monsoon. But the prolonged break in the monsoon has become a cause of concern.
The Ministry of Agriculture’s latest data showed that the total area under kharif crops has dropped to 823.43 lakh hectare till Friday as compared to 841.66 lakh hectare last year, a decline of 18.26 per cent. Paddy acreage is reported at 231.59 lakh hectare as compared to 267.05 lakh hectare last year, a decline of 35.46 per cent so far, is an important indicator of the overall food-grain output and eventually the possible situation of buffer stock.
The pulses plantation during kharif season also reported to have declined from 41.75 lakh hectare to 36.11 lakh hectare, a decline of 5.64 per cent this year. The shortfall in sowing is likely to lead to rise in prices of certain food items, experts said.
In States like West Bengal, cumulative rainfall between June 1 and July 8 was in deficit in 15 out of the 19 districts. In Odisha 16 of the 30 districts were in deficit. Other States in deficit were Jharkhand (23 of 24 districts), Bihar (30 of 38 districts) and UP (71 of 75 districts). The data showed that Bihar has 41 percent rainfall deficiency; Jharkhand 50 per cent, Gangetic West Bengal 47 per cent and East UP 52 percent. These States are known for paddy acreage and decline in sowing is a serious concern for common man as well as policy makers.
Usually, the North East and Eastern receives about 20-25 per cent of its annual rainfall in the pre-monsoon period. But this year, it was 62 per cent above average - the highest in the last 10 years, according to the India Meteorological Department. However, the southward migration of monsoon trough in monsoon 2022 caused deficient rainfall across above 50 percent of districts of the North East and Eastern states.
According to the IMD, much of the deficit was due to patchy rains in the early part of the monsoon season, and unless there is strong recovery in showers over the next two months, the initial shortfall could spell trouble. “Rainfall during the week over Northeast India rainfall continued to remain less and it received deficient rainfall 4th week consecutively and it was due to continued absence of major winds and moisture convergence from Bay of Bengal to that region,” the IMD said.
“The monsoon trough is very likely to be active and south of its normal position during most days of the week. Rainfall activity is likely to be above normal over central and peninsular India. It is likely to near normal over rest parts of the country,” It said
A scorching summer cut wheat output by nearly 5-10 per cent, prompting the Government to ban private exports. To make up for the shortfall, the Government increased the share of rice in its subsidised food programme that caters to nearly 800 million beneficiaries.