The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday predicted that the southwest monsoon is likely to be below normal, at 93 per cent of the long-period average (lPA). If so, the country is likely to witness below average rain for two consecutive years. lPA, refers to average rainfall (89 cm) received by the country over a 50-year period.
According to officials in IMD, there is a 35 per cent probability of the monsoon being below normal (when rainfall is between 90 and 96 per cent). There is, however, 28 per cent probability of a normal rainfall (between 96 and 104 per cent) and zero per cent probability of rainfall above normal, (exceeding 104 per cent) of lPA.
The IMD further said that the probability of rainfall being bad this year was thus almost 68 per cent where as there was only 28 per cent chance for a good monsoon. There could be an error margin of 5 per cent in the forecast, IMD said. The IMD predicted that parts of the northwest and central India are likely to be among the worst hit with less rainfall. They, however, did not mention whether the country is likely to face any drought-like condition.
The officials in IMD said that El Nino condition over the Pacific Ocean is likely to prevail during the month of June and continue during the following months of southwest monsoon. El Nino is a warming effect in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of South America that is known to have an impact on Indian monsoon. But according to weather scientists, it is just not the El Nino effect, but there are other parameters too which simultaneously contribute to how a monsoon will fare in a particular year.
The weather experts pointed out that 1997 had the strongest El Nino, yet the monsoon in the country was normal that year. However, last year, even a slight El Nino condition caused less than normal rain in the beginning of season, which, however, picked up from August. The next monsoon forecast will be released in June, said the weather scientists adding that it is generally the second estimate which is much more reliable. This is because the predicators that they are using now for this forecast are not as robust as they will for June estimate. last year, the country had received 88 per cent of normal rainfall. It had particularly experienced deficient rainfall in the north-western States, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, and Western Uttar Pradesh.