Salim Chisti, a Congress worker in the Dargah area in Ajmer, will vote for the Congress but is “sure” of the BJP’s win. Surprisingly, he reveals, at a personal level even he wants the BJP to win. His logic is two-fold: He believes Narendra Modi will curb price rise and a BJP Government at the Centre will ensure there’s no communal violence. “Gujarat in the last decade is an example,” he hastens to add.
Chisti claims his 35,000-strong community in the area has “more or less” a similar opinion despite their “compulsion” to vote for the Congress. “Price rise” and “security” dominate the minds of the minority community here, as Union Minister and Congress’ young Turk Sachin Pilot finds himself in a fierce battle of survival in one of the most watched and high-profile constituencies, Ajmer.
Pilot, the sitting MP, had been reluctant to recontest from Ajmer, a seat which he had won by 76,000 votes in 2009. He wasn’t without reason. The Congress lost in all the eight Assembly segments to the BJP under the Ajmer lok Sabha constituency last year.
However, left with no option, Pilot — who was also made the party’s chief in Rajasthan in the meantime to boost the Congress’ chances in the general elections after the drubbing in the Assembly polls — took the plunge only to see Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje unleashing a prominent Jat leader and Irrigation Minister in her Cabinet Sanwar lal Jat against him.
The importance accorded to this high-profile constituency by Raje can be gauged from the fact that she fielded Sanwar lal despite having announced earlier that no MlA would be put up for the lok Sabha elections.
Promising to make Ajmer the first slum-free city in India, Pilot is playing the development card to the hilt by showcasing his performance through posters across the city: From the airport at Kishangarh to a Central University; from 48 new primary schools to five new trains besides computer studies in rural schools and professional courses in IT.
However, as always, it’s the heady mix of caste equations that will eventually be the decisive factor. “A massive polarisation of the Gujjars -- whom Pilot represents and who do not see eye to eye with the Jats -- and the Muslims in favour of the Congress is underway. Together, they account for over 4.50 lakh voters in the 16-lakh-electorate-strong constituency,” political observers maintain.
The 1.50 lakh Rawats and the 2.10 lakh Jats, accounting for 3.60 lakh votes, are backing Sanwar lal. “The over 2 lakh Brahmins and the Vaish are also backing the BJP. The 1-lakh-strong Rajput community’s stance is still not clear. But the nearly 4 lakh STs and SCs finally hold the key. And this could go in favour of Pilot,” the observers point out.
If the combined margin of victory of the eight BJP MlAs is taken into account, it stands at 1.92 lakh votes. But BJP leaders admit in private that Ajmer is one of the toughest seats for the party to win and can be a roadblock in its ‘Mission 25’ plans. However, given Raje’s special interest, with all the eight MlAs in the Ajmer lok Sabha constituency wholeheartedly throwing their lot behind Sanwar lal, the Jat leader is definitely on an equal footing with Pilot.
By fielding Sanwar lal, Raje has largely succeeded in confining Pilot to Ajmer. Faced with the tough fight on hand, the Congress State president, known for his dynamism and clean image, is thus going all out to fortify his defences to face the BJP onslaught.
The BJP’s counter to Pilot’s developmental plank is clearly the Modi card. “If, at all, Sanwar lal is lagging, the Modi wave will see him through,” says a member of the BJP candidate’s campaign team.He is not alone in saying so. Hope on the “Modi wave” giving the BJP the final push past the victory tape on tough seats like Ajmer is the underlining factor within the saffron camp across Rajasthan.