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From ‘India Out’ to ‘Pakistan Love’? Maldives faces 2028 poll test

Ashoke Raj

From the India-out campaign that propelled President Mohamed Muizzu to power in Maldives to what could become a Pakistan-love narrative ahead of the 2028 presidential election in the archipelagic country, its politics may once again turn towards foreign policy as a tool of electoral mobilisation, Leader of the Opposition and former foreign minister Abdulla Shahid has warned.

In an exclusive interview with The Pioneer during his visit to India, Shahid raised questions over the 20 agreements signed during Muizzu’s recent visit to Pakistan, demanding that the Government disclose details of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoUs) to relevant parliamentary committees, particularly those concerning defence and maritime security.

Shahid cautioned that the Government’s failure to deliver on its domestic promises could encourage it to revive anti-India sentiment as the next presidential election approaches in 2028. He, however, stopped short of claiming that Muizzu had already decided to revive the campaign, describing it instead as a political possibility that concerned the Opposition.

“My fear is that since President Muizzu has not been able to deliver anything substantial on any of the promises that he has made, in the run-up to the next elections, he may create this platform of hatred and cultivate bogus narratives,” Shahid said.

The Opposition leader argued that the lack of transparency surrounding the Pakistan agreements was particularly concerning given their potential implications for regional security and the Maldives’ relations with its established partners, including India.

“I have been requesting the Government to share details with the parliamentary relevant committees, so that there will be no room for speculation,” he said.

Shahid maintained that even if the Government was unwilling to make the agreements public, it could share the details with parliamentary committees and political parties through established procedures.

“The problem with the current administration is that they do not give information to the public, neither to the Parliament,” he said.

The concerns come against the backdrop of a turbulent phase in India-Maldives relations following Muizzu’s rise to power on an anti-India campaign. It pushed the poll debate to the presence of Indian military personnel on the island, straining ties between the two neighbours.

Relations have since undergone efforts at rapprochement, including changes to the arrangements concerning Indian military personnel stationed in the island nation. Shahid credited India’s leadership with helping repair ties despite the earlier political hostility, describing New Delhi as a dependable partner of the Maldivian people across successive governments.

“India has been the staunchest supporter of the Maldivian people,” he said, pointing to India’s assistance during emergencies and its continued engagement with Male irrespective of the political party in power.

He also referred to Indian financial support, including an extension of a rupee facility, at a time when the Maldives was grappling with financial difficulties. Shahid said the nature of any further assistance would depend on the requirements of the Maldivian government.

The former foreign minister argued that Male should concentrate on delivering tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary citizens rather than prioritising what he described as ‘iconic projects’. Healthcare, housing and education, he said, should be central to the government’s development agenda.

His criticism reflects a broader opposition concern that the administration’s domestic performance could become a liability as the country moves towards the 2028 presidential election. According to Shahid, a renewed campaign built around external political narratives could distract attention from questions over governance and the fulfilment of electoral commitments.

On tourism, Shahid said the Maldives’ visa-on-arrival arrangement for Indian visitors had worked well and did not require any fundamental change. He also urged New Delhi to consider easing visa requirements for Maldivians travelling to India for medical treatment.

“Maldivians visit India except for medicals, I think. If you are coming for medicals, Maldivians require visa, and I wish India would exempt that as well,” he said.

Shahid was in India to attend the Words Beyond Borders International Literature Festival in Neemrana, where he was scheduled to chair a session. He also invited Bollywood actors to visit the Maldives and promote the island nation as a tourism destination among Indian travellers.

As Male navigates its ties with New Delhi and Islamabad, Shahid’s warning points to the possibility that foreign policy could once again become a central theme in Maldivian electoral politics. Whether the government chooses to pursue a different course or returns to the confrontational rhetoric that marked Muizzu’s rise to power remains to be seen. But, in Shahid’s assessment, the danger is that an ‘India Out’ politics of the past could give way to a ‘Pakistan Love’ narrative ahead of the 2028 presidential elections.