‘Cases to remain below 4L /day, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata past peak
With 2,82,970 new coronavirus infections, including 8,961 Omicron variant cases, India’s active cases have increased to 18,31,000, the highest in 232 days. The infections are likely to spike further till January 23 when the third Covid-19 wave in the country may peak with daily cases likely to remain below the four lakh mark, said Manindra Agrawal, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur and one of the researchers associated with the Sutra Covid model.
Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata have already reached their peak in case numbers in the past seven days, he said.
According to Agrawal, Covid-19 cases will peak in Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, Gujarat, and Haryana this week, while States like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Tamil Nadu may peak next week.
“The daily cases are projected to peak on January 23 in India and stay below the four lakh mark. Metro cities Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata have already peaked,” Agrawal said.
Agrawal had earlier predicted that the Covid-19 third wave will peak by January end.
“Across the country, the trajectories are changing significantly. I speculated earlier that it is due to ICMR guidelines for a changed testing strategy. However, at many places, these guidelines are not yet implemented and still, the trajectory has changed!” he said.
According to a new Govt advisory, individuals undertaking inter-State domestic travel and contacts of confirmed Covid cases do not need to get tested unless identified as “high risk” based on age or comorbidities.In his view, there are two plausible reasons for the change in the Omicron-led case trajectory in India.
“There are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower,” he explained.
Agrawal noted that there was a lot of concern when the Omicron variant started spreading in November last year.
However, he said, in the last week or so, people almost everywhere have concluded that the variant causes only “mild infection” and have decided to handle it with standard remedies instead of getting tested.
The death toll in India has climbed to 4,87,202 with 441 fresh fatalities. There has been a 0.79 per cent increase in Omicron cases since Tuesday, the Ministry said.