Bihar election results have been an eye opener in many ways. And one of the biggest causalities this election was exit polls that television channels started playing up from the time voting ended. Every channel had its own script and despite knowing the mood and trend at the ground level, all exit poll surveys remained conservatively cautious in giving absolute majority to Grand Alliance. The only one closest to the final outcome was Axis-Ad-Print-Media (India) limited which predicted 169-183 seats for the Grand Alliance and 58-70 seats for the NDA. But the channel it had tied up was reluctant to air it.
While several hovered around a safe figure with a plus minus swinging either way, it was Today’s Chanakya that lost the battle of Magadh. A wing of Delhi-based RNB market research Company, Today’s Chanakya conducts research for political parties and commercial enterprises in Asia, Africa and West Asian countries. With its uncanny and unconventional approach, Today’s Chanakya has had in the past done close to accurate predictions. However, it shot in fame during 2014 lok Sabha polls where it was on dot.
But then it went wrong in Maharashtra, Haryana and Delhi Assembly polls. Bihar will now in the list of predictions where it went wrong. Incidentally, Axis had predicted 53 seats for the Aam Admi Party in Delhi polls where the final figure was 67.
Today’s Chanakya forecast for Bihar polls had created a stir in the political circles. This time it had predicted “Bihar will sing Namo, Namo all the way.” It said that except for Kurmis, Yadavs and Muslims all others in Bihar were with the BJP. They even made Narendra Modi popular among women. It was actually news for women in Bihar who are ardent supporters of Nitish Kumar. They outnumbered men to help Nitish win. But Today’s Chanakya read it the other way.
“We have seen a strong inclination of women voters towards Modi and not towards the BJP. Among the women voters who have decided their voting intention towards the JD(U) alliance, we have seen differential voting. On seats where there was a RJD candidate, these women voters have shifted from JD(U) alliance towards Modi. This shifting pattern is seen both in rural & urban areas throughout the State” Today’s Chanakya had said on Thursday in its exit poll.
On its part, Today’s Chanakya claims that it carried out a continuous tracking poll in randomly selected assemblies during the election period and Exit Poll on the polling day of each phase. The sample size was 7,865. It had given BJP and allies 155 seats plus-minus 11, and relegated Grand Alliance to 83 with a margin of error of nine. However, Bihar voting pattern has stumped all pundits. The land of Chanakya needs to no Today’s Chanakya to teach them politics.
Three days later on Sunday, it ate crow and apologized for going haywire in Bihar. “We sincerely apologise all our friends & well wishers for not able to predict Bihar,” it said.