With the Government having recently adopted a new methodology to calculate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by taking the base year as 2011-12 from the earlier 2004-05, the economy is likely to grow at a faster pace of 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.9 per cent in 2013-14, as per the data released on Monday. At this rate, India could outpace China to become the world’s fastest growing economy.
At such a healthy growth rate, it is possible that RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan may not cut interest rates any further. last month, the Statistics Ministry had pegged the previous year’s growth at 6.9 per cent as against 4.7 per cent estimated earlier, a revision which led to some economists, including Rajan, seek more clarity.
The sectors which registered a growth rate of over 7 per cent are financial, real estate, trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting; public administration, Defence and other services; electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services.
Growth in agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining and quarrying; construction is estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively. The data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) is as per the advance estimates for the GDP based on the new calculation methodology. It further said that the economy grew by 7.5 per cent in the September-December quarter of the current fiscal after a growth rate of 8.2 per cent in the preceding quarter.
“Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs 106.57 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2013-14 of Rs 99.21 lakh crore, released on January 30, 2015. The growth rate in GDP during 2014-15 is estimated at 7.4 per cent as compared 6.9 per cent in 2013-14,” the CSO said.