For the BJP, the Assembly results were about over-estimating its appeal, for the Congress it was about under-estimating chances
They say perception is half the battle won. The crucial aspect is the word “half,” for the other half is still dependent on reality. That is the takeaway from the latest round of Assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra as well as the bypolls, which had been used as fodder by spin-doctors to indicate a continuity of the wave from the Lok Sabha election. But a wave that crests also crashes and the one based on the assumption of a democratic process as being subservient to a propagated opinion than the moral guardianship of a nation has clearly collapsed. For the BJP, whose members had almost began believing in triumphalism, the State verdicts have handed it a reality check. People may have bet on the persona of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a national election, that too in the absence of an Opposition challenger, but in States, they like leaders to be more granular about their concerns. They still believe that only a local representative can keep their faith rather than paratrooped ones. And that the One India narrative cannot hold roots in a diverse country where people inherently live federalism, not just swear by it. There are regional leaders still worth their salt, be it the old warhorse Sharad Pawar or the young, start-up Jat face of Dushyant Chautala. Though they have been subdued, neither Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis nor Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar did too bad a job. From being a non-Maratha leader, Fadnavis not only lasted out a full term of Chief Ministership but tackled sensitive issues like Dalit protests, the Maratha quotas and even a restless Shiv Sena with elan. He was able to assuage doubts about him being an administrator. Similarly, Khattar may not have been a charismatic leader or a Jat, the community that turned the tables in the latest round, but did attempt to enhance the State’s national profile, particularly in reversing the gender gap. As hand-picked helmsmen of the Modi-Shah duo, they have been assiduous no doubt but not felt the people they represented ground-up. Even in the Lok Sabha polls, only home-grown leaders like Stalin, Jagan Reddy and Naveen Patnaik were able to hold the Modi juggernaut. The BJP’s insidious strategy of breaking regional parties, using its muscularity at the Centre, and to sabotage pesky allies like the Shiv Sena by propping up Independents has also exploded in its face. Both the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and Shiv Sena have bested their earlier performances, at 54 and 56 respectively. And for Modi himself, who pitched high-powered nationalism and abrogation of Article 370 in the most backward of districts at rallies, it is a reality check that he should mean rural empowerment with specific plans for droughts, floods and crop failures and respect the gravitas of local issues, at least in his public speeches. Farmers can still give anybody a rude jolt.
The Congress would feel more than blessed, so lulled it is by strong opinions of its marginalisation that it has almost started believing in them. Had it worked seriously and strategically since May instead of the last 20-30 days that it did, things could have been different. This is significant considering that these performances have happened despite it being a wasted and spent opposition force. Its cadres worked local even though former chief Rahul Gandhi made the tactical mistake of screaming Rafale. Also, with Bhupinder Singh Hooda becoming the next Amarinder Singh, the Congress should consider running the party like a corporation, a CEO monitoring, not meddling in regional units and professionalising grassroots leaders instead of rewarding supine loyalists. And if Dushyant Chautala has proved that he is not just a dynast but works the ground, then Congress should look at its own young leadership, who are ready to lead their States, Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan and Jyotiraditya Scindia in Madhya Pradesh. One wonders if Congress interim president Sonia Gandhi would have left poll management to Hooda had he not threatened a split in the state unit. Now he has even been given a free hand in a post-poll scenario. At the State level, the Jat and Dalit vote drift from the BJP proves that the casteist plank still works. Pawar’s resurgence as the only Maratha strongman is further proof. The 78-year-old cancer survivor deserves an ovation for never deserting his land and people despite the largescale crossovers by partymen and a slew of ED cases slapped on his kin. Today, he has even trumped the Congress. He has as much numbers as the Shiv Sena and remains a prime catch even for the BJP for an understanding, should the Sena be obstructive. As in contests of this nature, many would want to be king-makers than the king. The Sena is already making noises of a rotational chief ministership and 50:50 power play than just be content with Aaditya Thackeray being the deputy CM. After Balasaheb, they see a chance of the savvy Aaditya as a worthy legacy-keeper. Both the BJP and Congress are lining up before Dushyant and Independents to get pole position. For all the commitment to ideology, State leaders are still not immune to the politics of convenience if they want to implement what they believe in. The bypolls have also stripped the BJP of its aura, the party doing badly in Bihar but winning eight of 11 seats in UP last-minute. In Gujarat, it is three each for BJP and Congress, the former’s acquisition of Alpesh Thakor from the latter a big dud. The Congress has held on to Rajasthan while BJP has held on to its Northeastern gains from Assam and Sikkim. In other words, no party can never overplay or underplay its cards but just play it real. For the voter can be the only kingmaker and still needs to turn out in numbers if s/he wants to make a difference. That is allowed. And legitimate.