While the inoculation drive figures may paint a rosy picture, a lot of work still needs to be done
Statistics give hope when facts refuse to. On June 28, India was said to have crossed a major milestone when it surpassed the United States in terms of total COVID-19 vaccinations achieved. The figure for India was 323,663,296 compared to 323,327,328 of the US. The Indian numbers were 335,968 more than that of the other country. There was another reason to celebrate. The US achieved that figure in 208 days while India reached its figure in 165 days. But then, there is a small issue that is perhaps overlooked. After India adds 9,260,461 more doses to its current figure, it will not have to stay ahead of the US any longer because at that point the latter would have achieved 100 per cent vaccination. The Worldometer says the US population is 332,923,757. The Indian population stands at 1,393,717,170, according to the live count on the Worldometer site. On June 28, the day when India beat the US, the pace of vaccination in India was 24 for every 100 people. The United States, in comparison, was far ahead with 98 for every 100 people. However, this by no means discredits India, considering the problems the country has had to encounter during the vaccination drive. By the end of June, India administered around 330 million doses in 165 days. The drive began on January 16. The Government says it will vaccinate the entire eligible population by December 31.
Statistical calculations reveal the following: It will take another 135 days of an intense drive to vaccinate around 600 million people to achieve herd immunity. Calculated from June 30, the deadline will be a much closer November 13 than December 31. Of course, there are several variables that can change the deadline and delay the goal. The most important one is the doses that need to be supplied to the COVAX initiative. There is already a shortage in the number of doses being supplied to it by the Serum Institute of India because of an urgent domestic demand in India. The Institute is contracted to give 85 per cent of the supplies to COVAX. If the shortage of raw materials and delays in transportation are taken into account, the availability of the vaccine will be further affected. Thirdly, the first world is already talking about a third dose, a booster shot for senior citizens and immunity-deficient persons and toying with the idea of vaccinating children — who are as yet not eligible for vaccination — to protect them from COVID-19 variants. The world has so far vaccinated three billion of the 7.87 billion population. Statistically, 70 per cent or 5.5 billion of the population can be vaccinated in another 174 days, that is, by December 19, to achieve herd immunity. In reality, the target of three billion was achieved because of China and the first world drives. The remaining numbers need to be achieved in the developing and underdeveloped countries.