Rahul Gandhi is looking to maximise the Congress’ national tally by going south, not betraying Amethi as a lost cause
It would be too naive to interpret Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s decision to contest from Wayanad in Kerala as a thoughtless, hasty move. Neither is he abandoning his homestead of Amethi — though the BJP would very much like you to believe that — nor is he betraying the few alliances he has managed to stitch up with that amorphous entity called the mahagathbandhan by taking on the Left. There are now apprehensions that the Congress is not serious about the Lok Sabha election or stopping the Modi juggernaut and is using it to just shore up its footprint as a truly national party than be subservient to the federal front. The truth is a layered gambit. And in the end, given that the southern States share 120 seats among them, the party does want to put up a strong fight in winning the elections and be a major political entity in doing so.
First, Rahul has realised that in the personality sweepstakes that this election has been reduced to, a Balakot-armoured, space-faring Narendra Modi has found his beat in the popular pulse of North India, riding a swell of Hindu pride that’s no longer dependent on Ayodhya. But Modi has not been able to penetrate the South with such ease, perhaps because these States are helmed by territorial strongmen, who are believed to be in sync with local aspirations, and partly because people here have a far more inclusive idea of India than the ‘new India’ peddled by the Modi army if not himself. Rahul has actually fared well in opinion polls in these parts. So, by positioning himself as a claimant to national relevance from the South, where it is easier for him to explain his idea of India, he could indeed create a polar opposite in the elections that could work in his favour. Second, Wayanad is a strategic choice because it sits on the trijunction of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala and Rahul’s campaign here will have some cascading effect in the three States as well, where the party has a more respectable presence compared to the North. Third, the farmers’ distress has been most palpable in this drought-hit region and, therefore, sets the right pitch for Rahul to lead a crusade on core livelihood issues. It is also a minority-dominated district and he wants to be seen as the protector of those pushed out of the mainstream discourse. Besides, the South, Karnataka to be precise, has a legacy of loyalty to the Gandhis whenever they have faced their severest challenge and all of them were metaphorically reborn in crucial verdicts. Indira Gandhi contested from Chikmagalur and won after her debacle post Emergency while Sonia Gandhi resurrected her political worth from Bellary despite a fierce campaign mounted by the BJP’s Sushma Swaraj. So if he can give the southern States a coordinated voice in the national discourse, then chances are that the Congress’ seat tally might improve enough to help it bargain better in power games. For howsoever the Opposition front might complain about being sidelined as power brokers rather than the king, fact is, at this point, the Congress still has the better national recall value and some heartland States in its kitty. So both cannot do without each other.
Even if the Congress were to give up seats in Delhi or settle for just two in Uttar Pradesh, would AAP or SP-BSP be able to make good in other States? The Congress has a better chance of solidifying its scoreline if it focusses on States that are easier to turn around. Both Rahul and Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi are caught between the devil and the deep sea. They can either help prop up the Opposition by becoming their B-team and risk losing their voteshare further or consolidate and grow in the long-term. And though the return may be delayed in the latter option, it is worth the investment of building a pyramid from the base. In fact, Priyanka has been vocal about the endangered species status of the Congress, calling out party workers over organisational weaknesses and insisting upon booth-level connect for 2022, the UP Assembly election. Wayanad seems to be the eject parachute that will keep them sailing on an emergency jetpack of improved tallies.