China and Russia are going out of the way to promote ties with the Taliban
Embassies of at least two countries in Kabul are not founts of confusion with staff scrambling to evacuate: China and Russia. China endorsed the Taliban, saying it is ready for friendly relations. Russia echoed the same sentiment, with ambassador Dmitry Zhirnov quoting the Taliban as saying that “not a single hair will fall from the heads” of their diplomats. The U-turn by both countries is remarkable. In 1996, China refused to recognise the Taliban Government and kept its embassy shut for years. Russia and the previous avatar of the Taliban fought it out in the 1980s. However, both countries are keen to avoid any new skirmishes even as they revel in the absence of the United States military in the region. China wants its self-claimed status of an Asian giant to translate into a meaningful role for it in dealing with the affairs in southern and central Asia. Russia wants its military bases in the territories of its central Asian neighbours intact. Both also want Islamist terrorism to be kept at bay and away from their borders. They also have economic interests they propose to harvest in the coming years. For all these reasons, they want the Taliban on their right side and both are currently exploring justifications for recognising the new Afghan regime as and when it materialises. This is where India needs to exercise greater caution.
In the immediate to short-term scenarios, India has to necessarily be a player in South Asia and extend the role to central Asia. That is so because Afghanistan, by dint of the return of the Taliban, has become central to the geo-politics of both regions of the continent. Other players have already taken positions vis-Ã -vis the Taliban or are beginning to. The third Asian country to be firmly behind the Taliban to the extent of even directing its activities is Pakistan. Its denials notwithstanding, an influential section of the Taliban leadership was till recently based in Quetta. It has also cemented its ties with China and Russia by criticising the US as a sop to the Taliban. There are other countries which may soon be singing similar tunes. Iran has already issued a cautious welcome saying America’s military “defeat” must lead to durable peace in Afghanistan. Qatar is unofficially the facilitator of diplomatic evacuation from the country. Bahrain plans to move the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf for a discussion on Afghanistan. Turkey too is in the fray for a non-combatant role in the future of Afghanistan and is quickly forgetting its earlier criticism of the Taliban for friendly relations with the group. All these countries, irrespective of their stated interests, are jostling for a role vacated by the US and Nato. India is the only country that is intent on helping out Afghanistan, but on its own terms. The other countries see it as standing with the US and that could result in them promoting an unfriendly binary.