The SCO began as a regional security forum but has since evolved into a crucible where geopolitics, economics, and energy intersect. Can India rise as a pivotal player, balancing rival powers while safeguarding its national interests?
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s 25th anniversary summit comes at a time of deep recalibration in the global order. For Asia, the SCO is no longer a mere security forum; it has evolved into a stage where the contradictions of geopolitics, economics, and energy converge. For India, the question is existential: Will it remain a dispensable pawn in Washington’s larger contest with China and Russia, or position itself as a pivotal state bridging US-anchored markets with Eurasian supply chains?
China at the Centre, Contradictions All Around
China is undeniably the centrepiece of this recalibration while simultaneously being the driver of Eurasian integration through BRICS and SCO and the source of sharp contradictions within both. Its embrace of Pakistan as its “iron brother” sets a hard ceiling on India’s strategic manoeuvrability, while territorial disputes and competition in Asia cast a permanent shadow over India-China ties.
Japan, too, finds itself pulled in opposite directions: Security reliance on the US but deep economic interdependence with China. The SCO thus represents both a promise of multipolarity and a theatre of contradictions.
Russia: The Indispensable Player
For Russia, the SCO and BRICS are strategic lifelines. Sanctions have tethered Moscow closer to Beijing, but forums like the SCO provide legitimacy and a platform to resist US dominance. Yet, Russia’s weakened position means it is now a junior partner to China, not the co-equal it once aspired to be.
Here, India’s growing role within the SCO becomes critical for Moscow: By backing New Delhi’s deeper participation, Russia can offset Beijing’s overreach and inject a measure of balance into an organisation at risk of becoming China-centric. For Moscow, India is both counterweight and indispensable bridge.
Trump’s Tariff Shock
The wild card remains Washington. Trump’s tariffs have become a key instrument of statecraft, injecting volatility into global trade. What was once a dispute over deficits has morphed into an assertion of raw power while signalling allies and adversaries alike that access to US markets can no longer be taken for granted. The consequence may be a deepening of Eurasian realignment, as countries from India to Turkey and Central Asia hedge their bets.
Economic Resilience Under Strain
India’s energy and economic resilience are both on the line. Discounted Russian crude delivered up to $17 billion in savings, but export losses from US 25 per cent+25 per cent tariffs threaten to wipe that cushion away and far beyond. India’s MSME sector contributes around 30 per cent of GDP and over 45 per cent of total exports, while employing over 60 per cent of the workforce. The knock-on effect is immediate: Job losses, credit freezes, SMEs scaling back operations and wider risks to growth and export competitiveness.
According to recent reporting, over 50,000 small exporters are already scrambling to reroute shipments or find new markets, amid tightening credit conditions.As tariff-driven losses mount, the political fallout will be felt in voter sentiment, especially in export-reliant states and among urban middle-class consumers facing inflationary pressures.
In a democracy of India’s scale, external economic shocks are never just about trade; they ripple into electoral dynamics, coalition stability, and the political economy of reform.India’s response must be multi-pronged: Diversify energy sources, build stronger strategic reserves, negotiate safeguards or carve-outs with Washington to protect vulnerable export sectors. Simultaneously, support MSMEs with credit guarantees, export facilitation, and market diversification, so that the tariff squeeze does not translate into massive unemployment and growth setbacks.
India–Japan: The Middle Power Axis
Amid these contradictions, Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Japan is a significant counterbalance to the SCO’s China-centric tilt. Tokyo and New Delhi, despite different alignments, share a core interest in preserving open sea lanes, resilient supply chains, and an Asia not dominated by any single power. Japan, heavily dependent on both US security guarantees and Chinese trade, sees India as an indispensable partner in creating strategic depth. The outcomes of Modi’s visit — deepening defence technology cooperation, expanding semiconductor and critical minerals supply chains, and accelerating joint infrastructure projects — are all strategic signals that Indo-Japan ties are strengthening substantially. For India, this partnership strengthens its ability to act as a pivotal state: A bridge between US-anchored markets and Eurasian corridors, while also crafting an independent
Asian pole alongside Japan. In effect, India and Japan are emerging as hinges of Asia’s multipolar balance.
Both are middle powers capable of shaping the region’s architecture if they institutionalise cooperation across energy, technology, and defence. Together, they provide a democratic, rules-based alternative to China’s hierarchical vision of Eurasian integration.
Washington’s Strategic Blind Spot
For the United States, the opportunity is to reassert leadership by restoring predictability: Anchoring Asia through security guarantees while offering market and technology access. Yet the short-term weaponisation of tariffs undermines those very objectives. By treating partners like India as expendable in its contest with China, Washington risks nudging them deeper into Eurasian forums it once sought to marginalise. If the US fails to recognise the structural costs of this approach, it may find its long-term strategic influence in Asia irreparably weakened.
The Geopolitical Reset Ahead
The SCO’s 25th anniversary marks a decisive shift towards a non-Western bloc, where Eurasian powers seek insulation from US coercion and dollar dominance. Asia faces opportunities in new trade corridors, energy routes, and financial mechanisms, but also sharper rivalries. For India, this is the ultimate test of statecraft — whether to rise as a stabilising power or remain constrained. With Japan as partner and a parallel track in the SCO, India can shape Eurasia’s future and act as a pivotal state.
The writer is a geopolitical analyst