Israelis votes in their first election since October 7, 2023, and no pollster can say with confidence who will govern. In the last polls before the blackout, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar led Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud on Channel 13, Walla and Ma'agar Mohot; Direct Polls and the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 had Likud ahead. In mainstream polls neither bloc reaches 61 seats.
This is a referendum on Netanyahu, 77, the only senior figure from that day still in office.October 7 colours every choice: over 60 percent of Israelis say it shapes their vote, the Israel Democracy Institute finds. But shared trauma has hardened loyalties more than shifted them. Defenders say the security establishment failed Netanyahu and he led a rebound. Critics say the man who sold himself as Mr. Security presided over the worst failure in Israel's history and refuses an independent inquiry.
Thousands rallied in Tel Aviv on Saturday, days before the vote, to demand one.Other issues loom. About 80,000 ultra-Orthodox men of service age have not enlisted; the High Court struck down the coalition's law shielding them, and roughly four in five Israelis favour conscription or sanctions. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran's government all still stand, and the Iran ceasefire is widely judged inconclusive.
Prices bite as defence spending has doubled since 2023. And the Arab parties, polling around a dozen seats, are ruled out as partners by Netanyahu and most of the opposition, so even a strong opposition struggles to reach 61.Netanyahu's case: 19 years as prime minister, a long push to confront Iran, Trump's endorsement on October 18, and rivals still being assembled, from Avigdor Liberman's hawks to Yair Golan's left, behind a party founded only in 2025.
The case against: no independent inquiry, unmet war aims, a coalition that has slipped from 60 seats to roughly 48 to 55 in mainstream polls, and a corruption trial plus an ICC warrant.No politician has more at stake. He denies the bribery, fraud and breach-of-trust charges, but his pardon request, unprecedented mid-trial, is stalled, with President Herzog preferring a plea deal first. His opponents' terms run through retirement: Lapid demands an admission of guilt, and Bennett would end the trial only if he left public life.
A sitting prime minister can bargain; a former one accepts terms. The opposition promises a state commission on October 7 straight away, and he is the only senior figure left to answer. Even a stalemate serves him: he stays caretaker while talks run, and if nobody reaches 61 the country votes again.
The region should expect less change than the rhetoric suggests. Netanyahu and Eisenkot both rule out a Palestinian state, and Riyadh's price for normalisation is a path to one. Where the result matters is Washington: Trump says he is not inclined to finish the Iran job if anyone but Netanyahu leads Israel. Israel is not choosing between war and peace today. It is choosing who answers for the last three years, and who is trusted with the next three.