With security failures, questions of accountability and regional conflicts weighing on Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s October 27 election could reshape its political landscape, though the outcome is likely to hinge on coalition arithmetic
The upcoming elections for Israel’s Knesset are being viewed as the most consequential in its political history. Being held in the aftermath of the deadly Hamas-led attacks on October 7, 2023, the vote has effectively transformed into a national referendum on Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu’s leadership and the security failures under his watch.
These elections also have wider ramifications for Israel on issues of national security and accountability as Israeli voters continue to endure the fallout of the unprecedented strikes and hostage-taking by Hamas three years ago. They left the country shaken to the core, with questions over the abject intelligence and security failure. Their impact will also be felt in the upcoming elections.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving PM, is seeking re-election in the October 27 polls. However, a tough battle lies ahead for the 77-year-old Likud Party leader, who has relied on his right-wing, nationalist politics for decades. In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, his credibility as the protector of Israel’s security interests took a huge beating. The Hamas assault left around 1,200 Israelis dead and around 250 taken hostage.
Bibi, however, has sought to counter criticism of his government by projecting himself as Israel’s protector, having launched a massive retaliatory military offensive targeting Gaza. The death toll in the Gaza Strip has exceeded 70,000, with Israel being widely condemned for the genocide in this Palestinian territory.
For now, Israel finds itself diplomatically isolated following the massive military campaign against Gaza and the consequent humanitarian crisis that unfolded there, with Tel Aviv even blocking access to food and water supplies to the region.
Israel’s involvement in multiple regional conflicts - with its bitter foe Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and Syria - has only added to the challenges confronting the Netanyahu government. Additionally, Bibi is also having to deal with strained ties with US President Donald Trump months after the two found common cause in launching military strikes against Iran earlier this year.
Netanyahu’s refusal to accept responsibility for the October 7 strikes that happened under his watch and the failure to set up a judicial commission of inquiry have also damaged his standing and could affect his electoral prospects. While several senior military and intelligence officials resigned, taking responsibility, Netanyahu clung on to power, maintaining that he had no knowledge of the attack.
Bibi’s political rivals have seized on this stance, promising a formal judicial inquiry if elected. Among them is the freshly minted Yashar party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF). Eisenkot founded the centrist party in September last year and has emerged as Netanyahu’s main rival. He was part of Netanyahu’s war cabinet.
Significantly, the Yashar party leader has also promised to do away with exemptions from compulsory military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews. The issue of exemptions for Haredi men has been a controversial one in Israel and has gained momentum in the wake of the Gaza conflict. Secular Israelis maintain that such exemptions from enlistment are unfair.
Eisenkot, who lost a son and a nephew in Israel’s Gaza military campaign, is a relative greenhorn in politics compared with Netanyahu, having entered politics just four years ago. Polls conducted in the run-up to voting day, however, indicate a close battle between Netanyahu and Eisenkot.
Neither, however, is predicted to win the required 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset. Though Netanyahu faces an uphill electoral battle, he could still pull a rabbit out of his hat and manage to cobble together a coalition with the required numbers in the Knesset.
India, which is keeping a close eye on the unfolding electoral battle, has remained Israel’s staunchest ally even as Israel has been diplomatically isolated by the rest of the world in the wake of the Gaza genocide.
The New Delhi-Tel Aviv embrace has grown tighter in recent years, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi becoming the first Indian PM to visit Israel in 2017. Modi and Netanyahu also share a warm personal rapport, with both leading right-wing governments predicated on nationalism and national security.
Modi made a second visit to Israel in late February this year, days ahead of the US-Israel offensive against Iran. The visit saw the two sides reaffirming their commitment to a robust special strategic partnership. India, meanwhile, seems to have diluted its long-standing robust ties with Iran, as well as its support for the Palestinian cause.
Defence and security remain the bedrock of the ever-expanding bilateral relationship between India and Israel. India is also part of the IU2 (India, Israel, UAE, USA) grouping. With Israel also being vital for India’s connectivity ambitions, the two countries are part of the India-Middle East-Economic Corridor (IMEC), which, however, can progress only if there is stability in West Asia.
Even if there is a change of government in Israel, the New Delhi-Tel Aviv clinch will not be affected, given their converging strategic interests. The two sides are also negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and seeking to collaborate on Critical and Emerging Technologies through a new initiative led by the national security advisers of the two countries. With just days remaining before this crucial election, both Bibi and Eisenkot will almost certainly need coalition partners to form the government. Even though Israel has always had coalition governments, this election, in the wake of October 7, has deepened political divisions. A lot is at stake for Bibi in these elections. Will he prove to be the proverbial cat with nine lives?
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving PM, is seeking re-election in the October 27 polls. However, a tough battle lies ahead for the 77-year-old Likud Party leader, who has relied on his right-wing, nationalist politics for decades. In the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, his credibility as the protector of Israel’s security interests took a huge beating
The writer is a policy analyst who writes on international issues; Views presented are personal.