Both countries would prefer to keep taking small steps that would not alter the status quo on their core stands
India and Pakistan have taken another tentative step away from the precipice of a bilateral freeze with both sides clearing the assignment visas of diplomats and High Commission staff pending because of a two-year stand-off. This will help staff on both sides to resume work and both Missions will get back to their sanctioned strength. The numbers were reduced after relations soured, with Pakistan demanding the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K’s) special status by India in August, 2019. Pakistan even recalled its High Commission and India asked the neighbour to reduce its Mission strength by half. This is the latest in a series of measures taken in recent months to reach a point from where a bilateral thaw could be achieved if both sides so wished. The year began with speculation about the mediation of the United Arab Emirates between the two countries. It acquired the halo of truth in late February when both armies agreed to adhere to the 2003 ceasefire pact at the Line of Control. The Emirati Foreign Minister has separately met his counterparts in India and Pakistan as well. A sense of calm simultaneously entered the bilateral space. For instance, India allowed Pakistan Prime Minister’s plane to fly through its airspace while on its way to Sri Lanka. The Pakistan Army chief suggested in March that both sides should bury the hatchet and move ahead. The Indian Prime Minister greeted his Pakistani counterpart on Pakistan Day. A Covid-infected Prime Minister Imran Khan received speedy recovery wishes from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Khan offered anti-Covid medical equipment to India.
It is much too early to read any long-term messaging from these developments. The basic issues remain where they are, both stands as frozen as ever. India will not revoke its decision on J&K and Pakistan has shown no inclination to withdraw its demand either. India continues to insist on Pakistan discouraging cross-border terrorism even though Islamabad blatantly denies involvement in spite of concrete evidence. Both sides, however, need respite from their individual sources of stress. Pakistan faces the blacklist threat from the Financial Action Task Force because of relentless pressure from the US and India. With the US leaving Afghanistan and much of the Taliban leadership living in Pakistan, it has its hands full on that front. The least it wants at this juncture is further escalation of tension with India. New Delhi, on the other hand, has been engaged in a stand-off with China in Ladakh for over a year and would not want the other border with Pakistan to become a hotspot. For their own reasons, both countries would prefer to keep taking harmless steps that would not alter the status quo on their core stands but ease day-to-day tensions and extend the fragile peace. These measures will at best test the flexibility of both sides to create conditions in the future to discuss the broader bilateral issues.