Prolonging of Myanmar’s state of emergency until 2023, and it could be extended indefinitely, shows the junta’s miscalculations
It is hardly surprising that Myanmar’s military dictator, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, has extended the duration of the country’s national state of emergency by two years. Nor should one be surprised if it is extended indefinitely as 2023 gets under way. Earlier, the army had staged a coup on February 1, 2021, and proclaimed a state of emergency for a year. The fact is that the Tatmadaw, as Myanmar’s rogue army is officially called, has no intention of giving up power. A huge straw in the wind is General Hlaing’s designation as Prime Minister in a new caretaker Government announced by the State Administration, as the junta calls itself, last Sunday.
In retrospect, the junta had initially said that the national state of emergency would last for a year, presumably to minimise global condemnation of the coup and because of the belief that it could easily subdue such protests as might occur. Neither has happened. Except China, which clearly stands with the junta, and several others which remain perched on the fence, most countries, particularly democracies, have been searing in their condemnation of the coup and the arrest and incarceration of Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders of the National League for Democracy (NLD) she leads.
Reaction has been sharp to Suu Kyi being charged with importing walkie-talkies and other foreign equipment, allegedly found in the compound of her home in the capital city of Naypyitaw, illegally and using them without permission. She has also been charged with breaching the natural disaster management law by interacting with a crowd during the COVID-19 pandemic, a law that President Win Myint has also been charged with violating.
United Nations spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters shortly thereafter that the charges against Suu Kyi “just compound the undermining of the rule of law in Myanmar and the democratic process”. He added: “We continue to call for her immediate release and the President’s immediate release and all others who have been detained by the military in the last few days.”
On the very day of the coup, the UN secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, said that it represented “a serious blow to democratic reforms in Myanmar.” President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Jen Psaki, said the US opposed “any attempt to alter the outcome of recent elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition, and will take action against those responsible if these steps are not reversed”.
Criticism grew harsher with time. On February 11, US President Joe Biden called on the junta to release detained protesters and civilian leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi and Win Myint, and cease their crackdowns on demonstrators. He added, “The military must relinquish power they’ve seized and demonstrate respect for the will of the people as expressed in their November 8 election….”
Going beyond words, the Biden Administration announced on February 11 the suspension of the 2013 Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, meant to boost bilateral business between the US and Myanmar, until the restoration of democracy there. It also imposed sanctions on 10 Generals and three commercial entities. Besides imposing restrictions on strategic exports, it has prevented the Generals associated with the junta from improperly accessing the Myanmar Government’s funds of over $1 billion lying in the US.
The US Commerce Department placed under suspension on March 4, 2021, four military-controlled Ministries and conglomerates and, on March 22, the US Department of Treasury imposed sanctions on Myanmar’s police chief, a military commander, and two military units for their role in repressing demonstrators. Britain, Canada and New Zealand have also imposed sanctions and travel bans, and frozen assets. Australia had announced the suspension of its limited cooperation with the Tatmadaw and said it would re-direct the aid marked for the Government to aid groups.
Clearly, limiting the state of emergency to a year did not fool the democratic Governments. Nor has the junta’s possible belief in the short life of protest movements against the coup, materialised. Rather, the movement for restoring democracy, honouring the outcome of the November 8, 2020, election, and the release of Suu Kyi and all arrested leaders and activists ,continues despite the escalating savagery of the Tatmadaw’s repression which is clearly reflected in Hannah Beech’s recent dispatch in The New York Times, which states, “Since the Feb 1 putsch, at least 940 people have died at the hands of Myanmar’s security forces, according to a tally kept by a monitoring group that closely tracks the killings. More than 5,400 people are in detention, including all of Myanmar’s senior elected leadership.”
Apart from its power lust, the extension of the duration of the state of emergency indicates the junta’s realisation that the protests are not going anywhere soon. Will these succeed in ousting the junta? One does not know. It is, however, a lesson of history that no regime can sustain itself indefinitely if the entire population of a country opposes it actively. This is precisely what is happening in Myanmar.
(The author is Consulting Editor, The Pioneer. The views expressed are personal.)