Given the Himachal’s electoral trend, Congress is a hot favourite but it faces crossovers and AAP
With the announcement of dates by the Election Commission, Himachal Pradesh is all set to go to polls on November 12, 2022, though the tenure of the Himachal Pradesh Legislative Assembly was to end on 8 January 2023. In the last election, held in 2017 the BharatiyaJanata Party formed the government, with Jai Ram Thakur becoming Chief Minister defeating its arch-rival Congress. The trend has been that the state returns the non-incumbent to power in essentially two-party polls. However, this time around there is a third player which may make a difference in winning and losing especially in seats where margins would be slender.
In several bypolls, the congress did well wresting control of the Mandi Lok Sabha constituency and 3 other assembly constituencies. For Congress, poaching is its biggest worry. Many of its established leaders joined the BJP and AAP weakening its grip on several seats in the state. Way back in March 2022, many Congress' Himachal wing leaders joined AAP in presence of Himachal Pradesh election in-charge and Delhi Cabinet Minister Satyendar Jain. But the exodus did not end there. Congress MLAs Pawan Kumar Kajal and Lakhvinder Singh Rana joined BJP in August 2022. Kajal was the head of the Congress Working committee. On 28 September 2022, Himachal Pradesh state Congress working president and former cabinet minister Harsh Mahajan joined BJP. Most of the congress leaders have joined ruling BJP. For this reason, the congress party has been over-cautious in ticket distribution. After days of brainstorming the Congress high command announced its first list of 46 of 58 candidates for the November 12 polls. Most of the sitting MLAs find their names in the list except Kinnaur. Former minister Kaul Singh Thakur and his daughter Champa Thakur have been given tickets from Darang and Mandi Sadar constituencies, throwing the "one family, one ticket" rule to the winds. Largely, caste and regional equations have been prime considerations. The list reflects the compromise between different factions. The tussle among the three factions - Anand Sharma, State unit Chief Pratibha Chauhan and leader of opposition MukeshAgnihotri may intensify for the remaining seats. Since the AAP and the BJP are yet to announce their candidates it would be interesting to note what criterion they choose to distribute tickets - winnability, caste, influence, or simple financial status.