It can only happen in India - Defence Minister Rajnath Singh thanking Prime Minister Narendra Modi for extending the tenure of the Agniveer scheme from four to six years; he knows it’s Modi’s baby. Many ideas were projected on Short Service recruitment by late Gen Bipin Rawat and others, but these were ignored. For then COAS Gen Naravane, it was “a bolt from the blue”. I have interacted with other Service Chiefs of the time who agreed with Naravane.
Youthful profile and nation-building were a mask for reducing the pension bill, which had eclipsed the modernisation budget. When Agniveer was announced in June 2022, Singh sat among members of the Integrated Defence Staff who presented the virtues of the Agniveer/Agnipath scheme.
Later, riots and political protests broke out; even the BJP allies in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh were unhappy. The government therefore promised to review Agniveer. Four years later, just when the first batch of 19,000 Army, 2500 Navy and 2900 IAF Agniveers were to complete their training, the Diwali bonus was announced.
At the 4 November cabinet press briefing, CDS Gen Raja Subramani, accompanied by I&B Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, announced the two-year extension of training granted to 75 per cent of the Agniveers who were to be demobilised. During the additional service, they would receive enhanced salaries - Rs 43,500 in the first year and Rs 47,500 in the second, as against Rs 30,000 for the first batch.
The government contribution to the golden handshake of Rs 11 lakhs would increase from 50 per cent to 70 per cent. CDS noted that with a two-year extension, reservation will not be required. So the BJP-run states and paramilitaries are off the hook in making reservation pledges ranging from 50 to 20 per cent, which were highly unpopular.
The retention after two years would be contingent upon objective criteria, physical fitness and discipline. No assured percentage of absorption was stipulated. Elsewhere, Rajnath Singh said that the present four-year Agniveer scheme will continue and has not been discontinued. He described the re-enlistment as a ‘second tour of duty’.The men in uniform supported this harebrained scheme, though privately and even in these AI times, they voiced their opposition vociferously.
How can you train and equip soldiers, sailors and airmen in this high-tech era in 36 weeks through simulators and other AI devices? Veterans had blown the scheme to smithereens, but no serviceman has dared to criticise the PM’s pet project.
Now veterans are calling the government’s two-year reprieve a U-turn, rollback and similar admissions of its failure. It is none of these; few have noticed the politics behind the concession. But veterans were quick to comment: now there will be Agniveer I, Agniveer II and non-Agniveer class.
Soon after the weekly cabinet briefing attended by the CDS, the three Service Chiefs also met at Manekshaw Centre, where the International Maritime Conference being held was paused for a select briefing on the extension of service. They endorsed the CDS’s announcement, lending it a tri-service approval.
To a question on deficiencies in the Army, the three-star-ranked Adjutant General replied: one lakh, explaining that the Army is maintaining, according to government notification, 98 per cent strength with 2 per cent acceptable deficiency. These figures, the veteran General who asked the question later said, these figures need to be verified.
The Congress party and veterans have affirmed deficiencies are higher: 2 lakh. On 30 May 2023, I had written an article titled “The Depleting Force” in a newspaper one year after Agniveer was implemented, noting that the government was pushing two big ideas: Rightsizing and Atma-nirbharta. For two and a half years, till June 2022, when Agniveer was announced, there was no recruitment in the services. The reason given was COVID, though all elections and Kumbh Melas were held.
The introduction of Agniveer had permitted killing two birds with one stone: reduce manpower (salary cost) and pension bill (OROP offset). The government cleverly fired from the military’s shoulder, presenting these as its initiatives. In 2023, the Indian Army alone had a manpower shortage of 180,000 soldiers due to three years of no recruitment.
The Army’s annual intake of Agniveer was roughly 40,000 when 70,000 were retiring. Gorkha units were most badly affected, with Nepal rejecting Agniveer. These were critical times on the LAC in East Ladakh and J&K. 2023 was the Army’s Year of Transformation, which was underlined by Rightsizing/downsizing.
When I highlighted the growing operational deficiencies at a Veterans’ briefing at Manekshaw Centre in 2023, the then Adjutant General had no answer. The casualties of the COVID era must include the Army’s operational de-optimisation.
The Agniveer scheme was conceived before COVID, when OROP expenditure surpassed modernisation funds. Agniveer was the salvation for balancing the military budget. It was said then, as now, that there would be no war in the Land of Buddha, though the Chinese PLA had extended the LAC in East Ladakh to their November 1959 claim line and is at present salami-slicing across the McMahon Line (which they don’t recognise) inside Arunachal Pradesh (which they call South Tibet).
The CDS has emphasised that the revamped Agniveer scheme is not a return to the regular recruitment. Defence Secretary RK Singh has described the extension as a revised arrangement and a win-win solution. There is no clarity on several issues, such as any cap on the 75 per cent to be re-enlisted and other issues.
It is believed that the rebooted Agniveer scheme will apply to the 300,000 Agniveers mustered so far. Agniveers mustered so far will retire in 2031. Nowhere has the government said that the 4+2 Agniveer scheme is the new recruiting model. In fact, the opposite has been said. The cloud of uncertainty has not been removed.
Varying interpretations are being made. Agniveer 2.0 will not assuage Nepalese reservations expressed earlier, even as PM Balen Shah will meet Modi on 23 November. Neither is likely to raise the issue.
The litmus test of the tweaked Agniveer scheme will be known in December 2027 when the next batch of Agniveers is to be released from service and elections in key recruiting states of UP, Uttarakhand, Punjab and Manipur are over and December 2028 when re-enlisted Agniveers are absorbed.
The writer, a retired Major General, served as Commander, IPKF (South), Sri Lanka, and was a founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, now the Integrated Defence Staff