On the eve of the US President’s visit to India, it would be better to pay attention to those issues which will pay dividends towards increasing the India-US strategic partnership than chase false images and ghosts such as US civilian and meagre security assistance to Pakistan
US-Pakistan relations have been quite often a wildcard in the development of India-US relations. In the 1960s, it was the high-level of US military assistance to Pakistan that was a sore point in the relations between India and the US. later on, it was the extraordinary lenience shown by the US to Pakistan in its clandestine efforts to obtain nuclear explosive devices, with the US Administration even going to the extent of subverting its own laws by turning a blind eye towards Pakistani efforts at illegal procurement of nuclear materials. Added to these developments was the discomfiture of India in the US hyphenating its relations with India with its relations with Pakistan.
Fortunately, US delinked this hyphenation by early 90s and since then it has treated India separately on its own merits to the extent that in recent times US Presidents have made a number of official visits to India without making a compensatory visit to Pakistan. Further while the US actively championed Nuclear Suppliers Group’s (NSG) exemption to India on nuclear commerce, it has steadfastly refused to entertain such an exemption for Pakistan. Nevertheless the US cannot entirely write off Pakistan from its agenda since there are many other areas where the US needs or may need some Pakistani assistance such as, for instance, in the evacuation of its military hardware from Afghanistan back to the US or some other US base.
At times, such US assistance to Pakistan does raise some alarm in some Indian security community, usually quite unnecessarily and unjustifiably. The recent furore in the Indian media, security analysts’ community and a reply given by the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson’s response to a question on certification of aid to Pakistan was not-so comforting. The MEA spokesperson had stated: “However, India does not believe that Pakistan is showing ‘sustained commitment’ or making ‘significant effort’ or ‘ceasing support’ or dismantling ‘bases of operations’ of the laskhar-e-Tayyeba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Haqqani Network and quite possibly the al-Qaeda.” Although the US Administration did clarify that no such certification has been made, nevertheless suspicion persists about US intentions.
Unfortunately there is an almost total absence of rigour in the Indian national security community when it comes to analysing US-Pakistan relations. In the present instance, the matter seems to have been brought into prominence by a Press release from the Pakistani Ministry of Finance, which had said that “Mr Olson (US Ambassador to Pakistan) discussed with the Minister the civilian assistance package under the Kerry-lugar Act. The Ambassador said that the Congress had notified a $532 million assistance package for Pakistan.”
On the basis of this single sentence, both Pakistani and India as well as, it seems, the officialdom in both these countries on the basis of an imperfect reading and understanding, assumed that such an assistance package that would have required the alleged certification must have been issued.
A number of factors need to be mentioned here. First of all, under the Kerry-lugar Act, only civilian assistance of more than $750,000,000 to Pakistan needed a certification and that too only to the extent “that assistance provided to Pakistan has made or is making reasonable progress toward achieving the principal objectives of United States assistance to Pakistan.” Therefore, the stated assistance of $532 million would not have required any certification.
Secondly, only Security Assistance for Pakistan, either FMF or arms transfers, needed a certification of the type that has been discussed in the media i.e., certification stating that the Government of Pakistan has “ceased support” or dismantled “bases of operations” of lashkar-e-Tayyeba, etc, or shown sustained “commitment to combating” or making “significant effort towards combating” terrorist groups.
The last such certification was made in 2011 with the US Administration finding itself unable to certify the qualifying criteria. However, the Kerry-lugar Act did provide that in cases where the administration found itself unable to give such a certificate, it can provide such security assistance if the Secretary of State determines that it is important to the national security interests of the United States to do so. Such national security waivers have been given for the fiscal years 2012, 2013 and 2014.
This means that while the US Administration shares the viewpoint of the Government of India as stated by the MEA spokesperson as regards Pakistan’s efforts to combat terrorism, it nevertheless feels compelled to grant some security assistance to Pakistan. Hence, the waivers. Thirdly, although the texts of the certifications and waivers and classified, their issue dates are common knowledge routinely published in the official publications.
Fourthly, there are a number prohibitions and conditions attached to US aid both civilian and security assistance to Pakistan. In fact every transfer of such funds, even if it has been already appropriated, needs to be notified to the Congress before disbursement. Fifthly, even though the US Administration has appropriated nearly the whole of the $7.5 billion envisaged under the Kerry-lugar Act, less than half this amount has been actually disbursed and even of this amount, nearly three fourths have been spent without any Pakistan Government oversight!
Sixthly and finally, although the Kerry-lugar Act was only for the Fiscal Year 2009-14, the new appropriation Bills under consideration for FY 2015 and beyond have even stronger conditions attached to US assistance to Pakistan. So on the eve of the US President’s visit to India, it would be better to pay attention to, and work out details of, those issues which will pay dividends towards increasing the India-US strategic partnership than chase false images and ghosts such as US civilian and meagre security assistance to Pakistan.
(The writer is a Consulting Fellow, IDSA, New Delhi)