A perplexing question confronting both the energy policymakers as well as academics is whether the world is entering into a “post-oil” phenomenon. This question has been repeatedly raised over the years because of the growing demand for renewable energy (RE) in different parts of the world. Along with this, a transition is taking place in the domain of energy security also where it has been argued that RE is the best bait for ensuring sustainable security. Even the Paris Declaration of December 2015 (COP21) has emphasised the same as the Paris Summit underlined the necessity to “promote universal access to sustainable energy in developing countries... through the enhanced deployment of renewable energy”. Though the Paris Communiqué made a concrete effort to address the issues relating to energy security and the same has also been ratified by many countries, the question of full transition to renewable energy raises many questions. The key questions are: How far is RE going to address world’s energy needIJ And what kind of geopolitical structure is going to emergeIJ To what extent the transition from conventional energy to RE will be a smoother one or will have its own ramifications on global geopoliticsIJ
The REN21 Renewable Global Status Report (GSR) published in 2016 gives a detailed explanation to the role of RE in the global supply chain. The report highlights that in 2014 around “19.2 per cent of global energy comes from RE”. However, the GSR has to be studied in the context of The World Energy Council’s report titled “World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050” which predicts that around “77 per cent of global energy will be of fossil-based”. From these two figures, one may get a sense that the contribution of RE as an alternative energy is concentrating in the few pockets of the world. For instance in the European context, the transition to RE is quite smooth, (Finland, Norway and Denmark) because these countries are technologically advanced at the same time some of the EU states want to reduce their dependence on Russia for energy supply. However, the EU’s experiences cannot be replicated in other countries having a larger population and vastness in size. In future what will emerge is a “mixed energy model” where conventional energy can co-exist along with RE. This to some extent ensures a sustainable energy transition.
If the RE is slowly intruding into the global energy basket, then there is a growing consensus among both policymakers and academics that it may shape a new kind of global geopolitical structure. Studies demonstrate that 20th century geopolitics is more or less shaped by energy security. It has been argued that scarcity of resources propelled two world wars. In fact, both Admiral Alfred Mahan and Nicholas J Spykman extensively used the terminology of “Middle East” to chart out a new geopolitical map for America in the energy rich West Asian region. In the post-Second World War era, Washington pursued an aggressive policy in different parts of the world, including in the West Asia to capture resources. The subsequent OPEC crisis, North-South Dialogue to a significant extent also shaped the global geopolitics. As has been observed some of the radicalist groups like Boko Haram in Nigeria, al-Qaeda and ISIS in the West Asian region, Taliban in Afghanistan, and Chechen militants are using oil money to finance their illegal and radical activities. African Independent Television last week reported that the Nigerian Finance Minister Kemi Adeosun stated that the country is suffering revenue shortage because of “illegal oil theft by militants” from Niger Delta region. Attacks on energy installations in Iraq, Syria and libya by the ISIS terrorists are a regular phenomenon.
It is quite puerile to say that RE will minimise global conflict. On the other hand, what the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 2007 report in the context of Africa stated that “the competition for land and water between fuel and food crops, adverse impacts of biofuels on biodiversity and the environment” will “fuel social conflict” in this continent. Sawit Watch, an Indonesian non-governmental organisation, in a report published in 2007 highlighted that because of growing dependence on Palm Oil cultivation agricultural production is declining. This phenomenon is accentuating social conflict. Even in recent years, the EU is also facing this problem. For instance, Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) in its 2016 Annual Report said the “use of bio-fuels, including wood fuels, for energy generation... has implications for food security” in Europe. From the above studies, one can get a sense that “post-oil geopolitical transition” is not a smooth one. It will generate its own complexity which will breed strife in the global geopolitics. In addition to food resources, sharing of river water as well as hydroelectricity potentiality is also becoming major bone of contention thus causing gravest security threat. Hydroelectricity is a viable proposition for alternative energy as highlighted by the World Energy Council Report 2016. The report adds that hydroelectricity is a major contributor to the renewable energy basket to the tune of “71 per cent”, however there are major problems associated with hydroelectricity. One most important problem as the above mentioned report points out is that there will be a “shortage of fresh water to the tune of 40 per cent by 2030”. In that case it may aggravate the problem associated with hydro-electricity. Several cross-border hydro-electricity projects are also in doldrums, including the CASA-1000 projects aimed at connecting Central Asian electricity grid with Afghanistan and Pakistan because of geopolitical reasons. Nuclear energy is also emerging as a major source of alternative energy and as the World Energy Council Report 2016 highlighted that “it contributes 11 per cent of world’s electricity”. However nuclear energy has its own challenges.
looking at the present scenario of RE, one can envisage that the post-oil transition will generate its own conflicts. Despite the fact that RE is gaining prominence in recent years , some of the issues like, land, resources, location, transit points (associated with classical geopolitics) are as relevant in today’s transition to RE as it used to be in the conventional energy security. Technology which played a critical role in the shift from coal to oil will also play the same role. Access to technology for harnessing RE will act as catalyst in defining the North and South relations. While the transition to RE is quite smooth for advanced countries, developing countries will face difficulties in this regard because of lack of finance and technology. The complex energy transition is also putting some stress and strain on traditional energy producing states like Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia, who are making attempt to harness RE to tide over financial crunch due to low prices of oil. Some of these problems associated with geopolitics of RE was also delved in details by the Renewable 2016, Global Status Report.
like other parts of the world, India is also making consistent efforts to harness RE. This will help in achieving twin objectives namely to diversify energy sources and ensuring cleaner energy thus mitigating climate related issues. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) in its annual report 2015-16 has calculated an ambitious potential of “900 GW” of RE for the country. The MNRE in its annual assessment published in December 2016 by the Press Information Bureau (PIB), India, states that, by 2022 it wants to achieve “175 GW renewable power installed capacity”. As has been argued, RE is closely rooted in the Indian culture, i.e., “Pancha Bhoota”, (five elements of nature: "earth, water, fire, wind and akash" ), which play the catalytic role in sustaining the world and mitigating conflict. By imbibing the normative ancient Indian culture, with modern technologies, as well as harnessing resources, India can ensure a better transition to the RE era.
One may add here that the phenomenon called “post-oil geopolitics” is not a smooth one. It may generate its own transitional conflicts which may impair global peace and security. To ensure a smoother transition what one requires is better coordination among countries having RE as well as policy intervention at the apex level through forming energy regimes. This may help in achieving the goal as imbibed in the Indian philosophy i.e., “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam”, which literary means “the world is one family” thus ensuring “sustainable security”.
(The writer is Assistant Professor, CRCAS, School of International Studies, and Jawaharlal Nehru University)