Considering the rising clout of Putin-led Russia and the American folly in Syria and Iraq, it is unlikely that the tension will give rise to a full-fledged Cold War
Socio-political changes in West Asia over the past two years have drawn attention of the world, including Russia and the US. Given the awkward nature of identity crises within Syria and Iraq, it is argued that Damascus and Baghdad face grave internal security challenges. The turmoil in Syria and Iraq has reached a tipping point, and it does not guarantee a swift end to the fighting.
There are two major reasons for the renewed US-Russia confrontation over the West Asian crises: while Moscow is the prime backer of the Bashar al-Assad regime, the US is looking for ways to check the Assad Government, albeit non-militarily; and the second reason is the rise of ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria).
Iraq crisis: Russia-US concern
The crises in the West Asian region have prompted Russia to involve itself in the regional conflicts, especially in Syria and Iraq. Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, constantly claim that the opposition rebels used chemical weapons in Syria. However, Americans are more or less convinced that the Syrian Government was responsible for the chemical attacks.
However, the two superpowers are jointly trying to resolve the present crisis in Iraq. Putin recently announced that Moscow will give full support to Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s to combat militants. Moscow claims the current crisis in Iraq is a consequence of the American blunder to let Syria’s civil war go on by aiding rebel groups in Syria. However, this does not explain why Russia backs the Maliki Government. There are certain reasons: first, Russia has won a more significant role in Iraq’s oil sector than many Russian companies expected a decade ago. Second, Maliki’s Government has close relations with Iran with whom Russia wants to continue its strategic cooperation. Third, Russia provided support to the Assad Government in its fight against ISIS; and as the same fighters have taken up arms against the Maliki Government, Moscow wants to save Maliki. Fourth, Russia also wants to counter US influence in the region with the support of Iran, Syria and Iraq. Fifth, due to Russia’s cordial relations with the regional countries, Moscow can easily sale its weapons and aircrafts to Syria and Iraq. Iraqi Defense Minister Sadun al-Dalaymi was in Moscow on July 24 to meet his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu. The two countries have inked deals on military hardware, including Mi-35 helicopter gunships and Su-25 aircraft. Sixth, given the key role that Chechen fighters seem to be playing in the Iraqi and Syrian insurgencies, it would be impossible for Russia to overlook this prospect even today. Although the crises in Syria and Iraq have potential to hit Russia’s economic interests in the West Asian region, the instability in Iraq and Syria might pose security challenge for Russia.
The rise of ISIS has left the US with strategic dilemmas. The US needs cooperation from foreign stakeholders, including Russia and Iran. The danger ISIS poses to the US interests has dawned on America. Therefore US President Obama has made it clear that his administration may reconsider military support to the Maliki Government. On July 24, the US Army General Martin Dempsey said during a security conference that the American military does believe that ISIS is a threat to the region in present times and to “our close allies” in future.
Syrian crisis and rift between two superpowers
The civil war in Syria has revived the Cold War era days. The controversy over military strike and Iran’s participation in the Geneva II conference on Syria has exposed differences between the two superpowers over Syria. The US policy toward Syria now seems to be concentrating on peace talks between Assad’s government, but the attempts have been futile till now. As the presidential election is over and Assad is back at the helm of affairs for seven years, Russia has happily accepted the election result. Still, the changing situation in the West Asian and North Africa region has forced the US and Russia to cooperate on a number of issues like the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons under UN Security Council’s umbrella.
The West Asian crises though have potential to pitch the two superpowers against each other, considering the rising clout of Putin-led Russia and the American folly in the West Asia, it is unlikely to give rise to a full-fledged Cold War.
(The writer is Associate Fellow, West Asia Centre, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Views expressed here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the IDSA)