The BJP’s prime ministerial candidate has brought the party within striking distance of a victory. Now, its local leaders and workers have to finish the fight
Just a couple of months back, the Bharatiya Janata Party in Uttar Pradesh was fragmented. The leadership lacked vision and workers were confused. The opposition parties treated the BJP as ‘number chaar ki party' — the party at number four — after Samajwadi party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Congress — in that order. Political commentators too wrote off the BJP saying it had no prospect in this politically crucial State.
Then came Mr Narendra Modi. He held four rallies in four corners of the State, and all of them were successful. The aam aadmi came out in large numbers to listen to Mr Modi because he talked about them and raised their concerns. The venues in Kanpur, Jhansi, Bharaich and Agra spilled over with people who wanted to hear the man who had brought development to Gujarat. The rallies appear to have changed the fortunes of the BJP at the grasroots level. The enthusiasm in party workers was back. Suddenly, the ‘number chaar ki party’ became the numero uno. The opposition parties agreed that they couldn’t ignore the BJP's prime ministerial candidate.
The day Union Minister for Finance P Chidambaram admitted that Mr Modi was a challenger, SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and BSP supremo Mayawati voiced the same concern in different parts of Uttar Pradesh. Mr Yadav said in Hardoi that though Mr Modi was attracting large crowds in Uttar Pradesh, he would not be able to make a major impact. This nervous statement was an attempt to console his cadre. Ms Mayawati, on the other hand, asked her party in lucknow to “beware of Modi and BJP”. She redefined her party's strategy by reviving the Brahmin Bhaichara Committees to target upper caste votes. leaders like Mr Satish Chandra Mishra and Mr Brijesh Pathak were asked to hold meetings in upper caste-dominated constituencies.
Political outfits that earlier detested talking about the BJP have now started treating the party as their main contender and Mr Modi as their prime dushman. Recently, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, without any excuse, mentioned Mr Modi. He referred to him as the outsider travelling around State, and said that since the TV channels are following him, the Gujarat Chief Minister is a media-created leader. Then he added: “One day, TV will finish me”. This is the Modi effect.
For the BJP, Mr Modi is its saviour. Before his emergence on the national stage, the party did not have enough leaders to contest elections. In the Awadh region, where the BJP was routed in the last lok Sabha election, the party did not have one leader of substance who could be fielded as a candidate. Ditto in Bundelkhand, Rohilkhand and Brij Kshetra where Mr Modi held his last rally. Brij Kshetra has eight parliamentary constituencies and 40 Assembly seats. The BJP holds just one of the former and three (all in urban areas) of the latter. In the Maath by-election, a lesser known party like the Trinamol Congress defeated the BJP.
The scenario has changed now. Even though the BJP still does not have strong local leaders, the party leadership is not concerned. Since Mr Modi has joined the fray, its strategy is to project him in each constituency as the main actor. The BJP believes that the people will be voting to make Mr Modi the next Prime Minister.
But caste is the deciding factor in every Uttar Pradesh election — be it for the lok Sabha or the Assembly. Mr Modi might have brought the BJP within striking distance, but it is the workers and local leaders who have to finish the fight. And for this, the party has to decide wisely in choosing its candidates. The BJP will have to strike a balance between the upper caste and the backward caste voters and also strengthen its booth management abilities. If it fails do so, Modi-mania will fizzle out and leave the BJP again in the fourth position.