The BJP and the Congress face multi-cornered fights in Haryana and Maharashtra. Expect hung Assemblies in both States
Will the upcoming Assembly polls in Haryana and Maharashtra be seen as a referendum on the new Government at the CentreIJ The stakes are high for both Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is on top of the world after his landslide victory in the lok Sabha election, and Congress president Sonia Gandhi, who suffered the most humiliating defeat in general election. It is virtually a Ms Gandhi versus Mr Modi fight as Congress heir apparent Rahul Gandhi has taken a back seat. These polls will also set the stage for the next round of Assembly elections in Jammu & Kashmir, Delhi and Jharkhand.
The upcoming Assembly elections Haryana and Maharashtra will be the first major test for the BJP after its unprecedented success this summer. Even if it emerges as the single largest party in these States, it will be seen as the continuation of what the BJP calls the ‘Modi magic’. If the party does not do well enough, it will be seen as public disenchantment with the Modi Government. The BJP is fighting alone. In Maharashtra, it even severed its 25-year-long alliance with the Shiv Sena. Mr Modi now has to carry the party entirely on his shoulders. The strategy should be to build up the party.
As for the Congress, the party sees a ray of hope after defeating the BJP in by-polls held in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. But it is facing a severe anti-incumbency wave in both Maharashtra and Haryana.
Maharashtra is a crucial big State for both the national parties. So far, both the BJP and the Congress have depended on alliances with regional parties — the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party respectively. But this time there will be a multi-cornered fight in the State. The Congress has an uphill task as it has no strong leader. The Gandhis will only be addressing just eight to 10 rallies while Mr Modi will be speaking at 42 rallies.
The NCP and the Shiv Sena have strong leaders in Messrs Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. If the latter makes up with his cousin Raj and joins hands with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, his performance could improve significantly. However, if the Shiv Sena or the NCP fail this time, it will be the end of their clout in the State.
In Haryana, powerful political families are trying to prove their individual strength. This includes the Hoodas, the Bishnois and the Chautalas. The Congress, besides facing anti-incumbency sentiment, is also affected by infighting. State Congress president Ashok Tanwar is against Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, and so are senior leaders like Kumari Selja and Kiran Chaudhary. Others leaders like Mr Rao Inderjit Singh, Mr Birender Singh, Mr Avtar Singh Badhana and Mr Vinod Sharma have already left the party.
Additionally, the Congress is also facing corruption scandals including one that involves the party president’s son-in-law, Mr Robert Vadra. For the Assembly poll, the Congress, which won only one of the 10 lok Sabha seats in Haryana, has fielded 33 of its sitting MlAs. This is a huge gamble.
The real battle in Haryana, however, is between the Congress, the Indian National lok Dal and the BJP. During the lok Sabha poll, the BJP was leading in 52 of the 90 Assembly constituencies, the INlD (which won two lok Sabha seats) in 16, and the Congress (which won only one seat in Rohtak) was ahead in 15 constituencies seat. The Haryana Janhit Congress, though in alliance with the BJP, failed to open its account but had the lead in seven Assembly seats.
As for the BJP, it has not done too well in the recent bypolls. It is also dealing with internal strife, after it gave tickets to Congress and INlD rebel leaders in several constituencies. The BJP also faces a challenge from the Shiromani Akali Dal, its ally in Punjab, which supports the INlD in Haryana.
On the whole, there could be a hung Assembly in both the States — with all the players keeping the option open for a post-poll alliance. After all, it was Haryana, that started the Aya Ram, gaya Ram concept of candidates changing parties for their own benefit. All is fair in the post-poll scenario as there is no political morality.