The grand tussle for influence

There are three probable reasons why Mr Mahinda Rajapaksa has thrown his hat into Sri lanka’s parliamentary election ring. The first is that he believes it can be his comeback vehicle after the loss he suffered in the presidential election last held. The second is that he thinks the passage of the 19th Amendment has given the post of Prime Minister (which he now seeks) more teeth. And the third reason is that he sees the prime ministership as a stepping stone to regaining the presidentship at an appropriate time. 

There are also three probable reasons why President Maithripala Sirisena has opposed his former boss’s move. The first is that he does not want another power centre (which Mr Rajapaksa will surely become as Prime Minister) in the scheme of governance. The second is that he believes Mr Rajapaksa’s return will hamper the reconciliation process his Government has initiated with the lankan Tamil community. And the third reason is that he does not want to face a political deadlock in case Mr Rajapaksa’s group does well in the parliamentary election and pits itself against the President on a daily basis. Given these apprehensions, the President does not want to make Mr Rajapaksa his Sri lanka Freedom Party’s official candidate for prime ministership.

The present situation is a coalition one, with Mr Sirisena’s SlFP and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party having come together to form what is known as the United People’s Freedom Alliance. There has been no major confrontation between the two since the January 2015 presidential election, but Mr Sirisena would prefer his party to have the upper hand in Parliament. The same goes for the UNP, which is why it is contesting the parliamentary election as an opponent to the SlFP. All these developments have naturally queered the pitch and made the coming election — in August — an interesting contest. Meanwhile, nobody knows the stop-gap Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s fate. He would have in normal times continued in his position until April 2016, when the current Parliament’s term would have ended. But Mr Sirisena, honouring a commitment he had made soon after assuming power, announced an early election. The parliamentary poll would have kicked in even earlier, but the Government had delayed it to facilitate the passage of the Bill regarding the 19th Amendment. Nevertheless, Mr Wickremesinghe is an old political horse and will not hesitate to position himself for the presidentship in 2020, if circumstances do not provide him a chance earlier.

Mr Rajapaksa is banking on three factors that he believes can work in his or his proposed grouping’s favour. The first is that, regardless of his defeat earlier this year, he continues to command a significant amount of support among the numerically dominant Sinhala community. The second is that he calculates that the group he leads can cut into the vote-share of the Sri lanka Freedom Party and thus render Mr Sirisena vulnerable to attacks. The third reason is his confidence that the Sri lankan Muslims, with sections of the Sri lanka Muslim Congress, would rally around him. While the first two scenarios are at least discussable, the third appears to be a case of misplaced optimism. 

The SlMC had quit Mr Rajapaksa’s Government ahead of the 2015 presidential election and pledged support to Mr Sirisena’s candidature. little has happened since then to have engineered a shift from that position. Yet, the truth is that there are sizeable sections of lankan Muslims, especially the Tamil-speaking ones, which had backed Mr Rajapaksa’s drive against the liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, primarily because the lTTE had brutalised the Tamil-speaking lankan Muslim population, especially in the eastern and northern regions of the island-nation. In fact, the SlMC had even gone to the extent of supporting Mr Rajapaksa’s 18th Amendment that had lifted the two-term limit on presidency. After switching sides once the lTTE was decimated, a senior Muslim leader had said, “We are guilty of compliance, and want to redress that.” The SlMC appears committed to being in Mr Sirisena’s camp for now, though it has in the past flirted with the UNP as well.

The 19th Amendment is being seen as a harbinger of far-reaching political changes and an oasis of hope for the likes of Mr Rajapaksa. Yet, it is not as revolutionary as it is made out to be — though, without doubt its politically symbolic significance is undeniable. It culls the powers of the President to the extent that it has restored the two-term limit. Also, each term of the President and that of Parliament will be of five years instead of the earlier six years. The Amendment has also made it difficult for the President to dissolve Parliament. This is important, because there have been occasions in the past when the President abruptly dismissed Parliament because of unhappiness with the Prime Minister — in February 2004, President Chandrika Kumaratunga had dissolved Parliament following a bitter struggle with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. It’s no wonder, therefore, that Mr Wickremesinghe, a decade later, extended full support to the 19th Amendment!

But that’s where the changes end. The President still continues to exercise the all-important executive powers and remains head of the Cabinet. He still appoints Ministers, though in consultation with the Prime Minister. This is not in keeping with Mr Sirisena’s election-time promise of curbing presidential powers and enhancing Parliament’s status. But to be fair to the President, those revamps could not kick in because the country’s Supreme Court held that they required a national referendum. It needed political courage on Mr Sirisena’s part to decide on trimming his own powers, even if partially. He has unequivocally demonstrated that courage.

None of this is going to make Mr Rajapaksa take political sanyas. As a member of the SlFP, and even when out of it, if Mr Sirisena moves to expel him from the party or if the former President decides to leave on his own, he will remain a thorn in the President’s flesh. Mr Rajapaksa is not going to forget in a hurry that he was ‘betrayed’ by his Health Minister who rebelled, contested against him, turned the tide against him, and became President. 

But Mr Rajapaksa has fetters that may not allow him full freedom to hit back as hard as he would want to. He, his family members and close associates face numerous charges of impropriety and corruption. The more he makes things difficult for Mr Sirisena, the harder the Establishment is likely to hit back, and viciously. The  challenge of tackling simultaneously politics and court cases, is never an easy one for a leader fighting for relevance.