India seems to have found a Government which is not worried about the elections and is more concerned about laying a sound foundation. Or has itIJ
It is nearly three weeks since the Budget 2018-19 was presented. Every year,I revisit the Budget a few weeks after it is presentation so here goes.
Over the years, the Budget figures have become progressively incomprehensible. An illustration — Rs 1.38 trillion is the figure promised for spending on health, education and the social sector. The budgeted spending on the rural sector is Rs 2.36 trillion. My mind does not comprehend the figure of a trillion and it remains for me a soulless abstraction.
Having been in and out of the field of economic theory and practice I am aware that the done thing, when numbers elude comprehension, is to switch to percentages. So, as I poured over the small print of the Budget, I noted that the expenditure of the Central Government for 2018-19 is 13.04 per cent of the projected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). I ran this calculation past two economists of credibility and even some fame. I got a garbled, if patronising, explanation of GDP and how it is variously comprehended. The response sounded brilliant but was not very helpful. It did seem to me that the Government had claimed it was planning a reduction in its expenditure as a percentage of GDP.
So, we were back to the classic syndrome of a figure as a percentage of what was still unknown. Further, I was told that the lucky people in the Budget were the farmers, health-care related professionals and, of course, the ‘poor'. I was assured that jobseekers would have it good.
Nobody explained to me how if capital gains were to be taxed, the propensity to invest would gain; and how when investments did not grow exponentially, jobs would. When I raised this matter with the Chairman of an important Government committee on economic matters I was told that these are long-term initiatives which will take time to incubate. In which case I cheerfully concluded that India had really found a statesman-like Government which is not worried about the elections due in less than four hundred days but was more concerned about laying sound foundations for the future.
I wondered if as a people we were not being ungrateful for the blessing of such far-sighted measures. I was urged to be positive. But having spent some time earning my livelihood through research and teaching, I could not help but further pursue my exploration.
All the familiar faces of the corporate world on Page 3 were peering out of newspaper columns and smilingly telling citizens like me how much there was to praise in such foresight. Obviously, it was easy to agree. But one did feel bothered for two reasons.
First, the Government claims were in the template of all claims which follow Budget presentations. Secondly, I did feel concerned by how much time would be needed for 10 crore families to get covered by the healthcare package.
Maybe, that will happen because the next Budget would be a continuation of this Budget. In that case was this Budget a continuation of the last BudgetIJ
Truth be told, or net-net as the phrase foes, many see the annual Budget as a grand theatre of the abstract. It causes a spectacle but leaves only some conveniences and much confusion behind. To the best of my information, once the Budget Session is over, there is no parliamentary session slated to exclusively review the credibility of the claims of Government and the veracity of the debunking efforts of the Opposition.
Yet, hope springs eternal in human breast. Who knows, one day we will have a Budget which is serious about water hygiene, food adulteration, availability of medicines and indeed, prompt care in case of health emergencies.
Some of us are more bothered with this than the more rarefied aspirations and blame-games of the well-heeled. I need health which can be assured before insurance becomes due.
(The writer is a well-known management consultant)