Hardcore antagonists of the India-Pakistan peace process in the present situation may not like the initiative the Modi Government has taken to revive the dialogue. But the alternative of no-talks unless all of India’s concerns are met, would have been a bad choice
Amid the noise by the Opposition, the Narendra Modi Government has taken an appropriate step to ease relationship with Pakistan. It is a strong statement even as terrorist activities grow in that troubled state. It is virtually stated that connectivity is at the heart of India for pushing regional economic cooperation in a meaningful way.
The Heart of Asia meet has brought in new hopes. Minister for External Affairs Sushma Swaraj has given a call to Pakistan to counter terrorism with sincerity so that not only peace prevails but the regional market also opens up.
The Nawaz Sharif Government was told to lift barriers on transit trade with Afghanistan and open up the Wagah checkpoint for Afghan trucks carrying goods to India. Ms Swaraj’s call was in sync with the statement of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who also wants an end to the Pakistan Army’s support to the Haqqani network and other terrorist organisations ensconced in Pakistan.
Will all this end terrorism and give a filip to India-Pakistan-Afghan tradeIJ It is definitely not that easy. Mr Sharif may like what all those assembled at Heart of Asia may have said. He too gave a bold statement, “An enemy of Afghanistan is an enemy of Pakistan.” But the Pakistan Army is definitely not ready to accept the reality. It has not changed. What General Pervez Musharraf had started at Kargil, and the subsequent boost to terrorism, has taken the sub-continent backwards.
So, will the new continueIJ The kind of interest the Pakistan Army has in terrorist groups, their trade in drugs and arms, it will not be easy. So the question in India and elsewhere , being raised, is: Why did India participated in the supposedly not useful Heart of Asia dialogueIJ During the past few years, the world has seen that the more peace is discussed the more active the Taliban, Jaish and other groups become.
It has also led to the isolation of the civilian Government in the troubled state of Pakistan — an objective of the terrorist groups. India’s presence and assertion at the meet and call for the elimination of noxious groups, be it the Islamic State, Jaish-e-Mohammed, the Taliban or for that matter any anti-civilisation assemblage, is appropriate for taking the world forward to the goal of peace, development and connectivity.
There are groups in India, Afghanistan and Pakistan that want closer linkages. Pakistan remains at the heart of the problem. Its isolation by the world powers and continuous chastising has weakened the peace-loving developmental forces. The three countries are spending over two percent of their GDP in countering the anti-civilisation forces. The bickering of the three countries’ Governments has caused immense problems for the people of these countries who are literally being bled to death.
The Indian effort at bringing these countries closer should be seen as a beginning towards a long-term solution and ushering in of a new connectivity that has the potential of eliminating terrorism from the region — a precursor to the widening of trade linkages and prosperity of the Indian subcontinent, often called South Asia.
That looks nice on paper and to hear. India, despite Pakistan not according the most favoured nation treatment to it, causing hurdles in transportation of goods to and fro Afghanistan, still has sizeable business with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Indian goods are fancied. It also remains the biggest market for goods produced in those countries.
The potential for increasing the volume is in the interest of not only India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, but it can open up avenues for easy trade to Central Asia as well. There is a distant dream of the 1970s which wanted the Iranian capital Tehran to connect with Dhaka, Yangoon and Bangkok. All these years, the only block and obstacle has been Pakistan with its myriad problems, artificial nationality, and siege by various ultra groups to create trouble in the world.
The present dialogue is a mere beginning of a long process. There are dangers too. The enemy is not weak.
Gen Musharraf, in his autobiography, has claimed success in hoodwinking the US to grant almost a trillion of dollars to ‘fight terror’. He claimed that the US money boosted the tottering economy of Pakistan. What he does not say is that a sizeable amount of this dole has gone to ISI and through it to Taliban. Taliban militants receive financial support through the Islamic banking system, worth about two trillion dollars worldwide and have posted an annual growth rate of 15 per cent, Pakistani bankers say. Such transactions are made through various channels. Allegations arose in early 2001 that the system aided terrorism, but the authorities couldn’t prove any of them, says Adnan Rasool, an Islamabad-based Islamic banking specialist.
Fighting anti-civilisation forces is not easy. It has to be fought at different levels across various countries. These forces want to create a different kind of system in the name of Islam and the destruction of the existing system. Many Islamic scholars disagree with this approach.
It is just not a battle that can be fought by Governments alone. Governments have to penetrate the system, and do so through the common poorest people in these countries. Governments have to create strong systems of care at every level — health, education, food et al. They have to create jobs so that the teeming millions are not weaned away by extremist groups flush with petro-dollars.
Should the world lose hopeIJ No. A beginning has already been made. The goods-laden trucks are rolling out of Wagah to Attari. The odds are great but not insurmountable. The NDA Government envisaged closer Saarc ties as it took oath in May 2014. Eighteen months are too short to take it to the climax in a region that sees every step with caution and suspicion.
Nonetheless, the coming together of the three countries on the same platform is itself a positive multi-dimensional decision. It aims at breaking the economic and structural collapse of international terrorism and the expanse of regional trade, economic activity and cultural connectivity. A positive beginning has been made. Hardcore antagonists may like it or not, but a continuous dialogue is must for peace, progress and prosperity of the region. Trade is a natural outcome. Nurtured successfully, it would lead to a new era and the GDP of the region can multiply manifold.