The Winter Session of Parliament is crucial for the NDA. It will test the Government’s handling of political affairs at home and abroad
Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces a plethora of challenges after returning from his visit to the United Kingdom. The immediate impact of the massive victory of the grand alliance in Bihar will be felt in the ensuing Winter Session of Parliament, combined with the Opposition effort to make it a complete washout.
First, a win for the NDA in Bihar could have given the Modi Government the much-needed political authority to push through its long-pending reform Bills.
Second, after suffering a crushing defeat in Bihar, there is great distress within the BJP. The party leadership has to deal with the likes of senior BJP leader and filmstar Shatrughan Sinha and BJP MP from Arrah in Bihar RK Singh, who are waiting to speak about the rout. Also, there are affiliates of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh like the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh and the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch, who are opposed to some reform measures.
Third, it is crucial for Mr Modi to restore credibility in India and abroad, and attract investments. This is possible only by passing important Bills. Apprehensive of the Oppositions’ moves, while announcing the dates of the Winter Session, Union Minister for Urban Development Venkaiah Naidu asked the Opposition not to use the Bihar debacle as a mandate to disrupt Parliament.
The Congress, along with the left, the Janata Dal (United), the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and other Opposition parties had stalled almost the entire Monsoon Session, demanding the resignation of External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, over their alleged nexus with former IPl chief lalit Modi.
The Congress’s strategy is to delay the reform process, so that the Modi Government does not get any credit. This was exactly what the BJP had done when it was in the Opposition. The Congress, along with other parties is planning to force a vote on foreign direct investment proposals on media and defence, hoping to defeat these on the floor of the Rajya Sabha.
As far as the GST Bill is concerned, the Congress may soften its stand, if the Government reaches out to them. Differences can be narrowed down to just three or four issues like fixing of an 18 per cent ceiling rate, scrapping of the proposed one per cent additional levy and increasing representation of States in the GST council. Indicating their mood, Opposition parties, including the Congress, the JD(U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal, the left and the Nationalist Congress Party have given notices, demanding a debate on the issue of intolerance.
Incidentally, the success of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in Bihar has created a new challenge for the Congress. Mr Kumar will now become a nucleus for a broader secular alliance which may include West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and others. The JD(U) has already called for a common opposition agenda in Parliament and may also rope in the Samajwadi Party.
It is well known that while the BJP has a comfortable majority in the lok Sabha, the situation in reverse in the Rajya Sabha. With a belligerent Opposition, it will be difficult for the BJP to pass any Bill, unless it reaches out to them. Given that there are 67 Bills pending in both the Houses 59 in the Rajya Sabha and eight in the lok Sabha, apart from introducing new Bills, the Government’s challenge is huge to ensure smooth business in the House.
The ruling party is now left with a few options. It has has to keep its allies in good humor and keep the NDA intact. This is in view of the fact that NDA allies like the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal are planning to participate in the swearing-in ceremony of Mr Kumar.
The BJP also has to shed its majoritarian approach in Parliament. As Finance Minister Arun Jaitley signalled, the BJP must reach out to the Opposition to seek consensus. Mr Modi should make some efforts to talk to the Opposition leaders, both individually and collectively, to impress upon the need for the reform measures. A little humility on his part will go a long way.
Finally, the BJP can use the ordinance route, after a washed out Session, but going by the recent fate of the Bills, this is not desirable. In any case, they have to be brought before the Budget session of Parliament and it may see the same fate in the Rajya Sabha.