Russian President Vladimir Putin is not going down the path of world conquest. He is not even planning to take over Ukraine. The West needs to take it easy
Just before he sat down to a traditional Bavarian meal of sausages and beer with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the start of the G7 summit on Sunday, US President Barack Obama told the media that one of the meeting’s priorities would be discussing ways of “standing up to Russian aggression in Ukraine.” Which begs the question: What kind of aggression are we talking about hereIJ
There are unquestionably Russian troops in the rebel provinces of eastern Ukraine, and that is certainly an act of aggression under the international law. But is this a prelude to a Russian invasion that would take over all of Ukraine, as Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko recently allegedIJ If it is, it would require a whole different level of response, and the result could easily be a new Cold War. Might Russian President Vladimir Putin actually be the next world conqueror, out of the same mould as Napoléon Bonaparte and Adolf HitlerIJ In that case, get ready for a Third World War, because it's unlikely that anything less would stop him. So exactly what kind of aggressor Mr Putin is, matters a lot.
After three months of non-violent demonstrations against Ukraine's pro-Russian President, Viktor Yanukovych, in the winter of 2013-2014, and after a day of shooting on Independence Square (the Maidan) in Kiev that killed at least 50 protesters and three policemen, Mr Putin agreed to a deal on February 21 that promised new elections in Ukraine within a month. It was always puzzling why the demonstrators went out onto the square and spent three bitterly cold months there demanding that Mr Yanukovych quit right away, given that elections were due in Ukraine within a year. Why not stay warm at home and vote him out next yearIJ
Never mind that. The representatives of the protesters definitely did agree to the deal hammered out by the Russian and the European Union negotiators on the evening of February 21, 2014. Mr Yanukovych was to resign and there would be new elections in one month. Yet only hours later the demonstrators attacked the presidential administration buildings and Mr Yanukovych had to flee. Why couldn't they wait even one monthIJ
Maybe because they were afraid that they would lose the election. Kiev is in western Ukraine, where most people are strongly pro-Western and would like to join the EU, even the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation if possible. It certainly looked to people watching it on television as if all Ukrainians wanted Mr Yanukovych out. But he had won the 2010 election fair and square with a 52 per cent majority, thanks to the votes of the eastern Ukrainians. Their ancestors had lived in the Russian empire for more than three centuries, unlike those of the western Ukrainians. Most eastern Ukrainians speak Russian, share the orthodox religion of Russians, are actually pro-Russian in general.
What's more, eastern Ukraine is the home of almost all of the country's heavy industry, and it was Russia that bought most of the coal, steel and industrial goods produced by eastern Ukrainians. It was their votes that elected Mr Yanukovych in 2010, and there was no reason to believe that they would vote differently in 2014.
There really was a coup in Kiev in 2014, and Mr Putin was quite right to feel deceived and betrayed. He was wrong to respond as he did, taking back Crimea (which had an overwhelmingly Russian population but had been bundled into Ukraine in a Communist-era decision in 1954). He was very wrong to back the rebellion in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and luhansk. If he actually encouraged them to rebel (which is not clear) he is even more in the wrong.
But he is not setting out down the path of world conquest. He is not even planning to take over Ukraine. “Standing up to Putin” is an invigorating moral exercise, but it is not, strictly speaking, necessary.