Prime Minister Modi must seriously consider attending the proposed One Belt One Road summit. This could open up new vistas for improved relations with Pakistan and China, and show a way forward for India to become a leading power
Since relations between India and China have hit a serious roadblock, the burden of retrieval is now wholly on New Delhi. This was the clear unsaid message that emanated from the recent strategic dialogue held in Beijing where Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar was met by State Councillor Yang Jiechi and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
In a country sensitive about protocol, the significance of two senior Chinese leaders confabulating with Jaishankar could not have been lost on India. And it was two-fold: One, China will not relent on the three Indian demands that affect its strategic roadmap. These include agreeing to UN sanctions on Masood Azhar; India’s membership of the NSG (without Pakistan being in it); and halting work on the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. To be sure, CPEC is the flagship of President Xi Jinping’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project and ,therefore, Pakistan is now China’s closest ally and not a lackey who can be dictated to abandon its proxy war (where Azhar is a strategic asset).
The other forceful message was that China desires good relations with India. Just as President Vladimir Putin’s Russia has merged its Eurasia Economic Union project with Xi’s OBOR in a win-win situation, Beijing wants Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Act East policy to seek common ground with the OBOR and the BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar) which was offered to India before OBOR was unveiled by President Xi Jinping to the world. This was conveyed by inviting Prime Minister Modi to participate in the OBOR summit in May. It is a no-brainer that the summit meeting called by Xi would be attended by the heads of Government of Pakistan, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, most Central Asian Republics, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri lanka, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines, amongst others.
India’s reaction to Chinese invite has been surprising. Instead of mulling over the implications of attending the summit and the benefits it could accrue with China and Pakistan, especially in Kashmir where things are on the downslide, Jaishankar, in a display of misplaced arrogance, asked China to explain how India could attend the summit when the CPEC violates India’s sovereignty over PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. While India’s tough stand against China will win accolades at home, it ought to be remembered that the military and geostrategic landscape in Kashmir is, at present, tilted against India, with little hope of redemption without a drastic course-correction.
Take Kashmir, where, in the absence of political reforms, the insurgency is on the upswing, with the onus on the security forces alone, particularly the Army, to keep things under check. Instead of appreciating that the Pakistan Army is heavily committed elsewhere, the Indian side is mindlessly assisting Rawalpindi’s Kashmir agenda.
For instance, the two top priorities of the Pakistan Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, are to provide assured security to the CPEC, and to fight home-grown terrorism. Known to accomplish results on time, China will be extremely upset if the CPEC (and consequently the OBOR) — which passes through restive Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan — is delayed for security reasons. Moreover, if Rawalpindi is unable to defeat the bad terrorists which are allegedly being used by Afghanistan and India against Pakistan, its own good terrorists would be severely handicapped to fulfil its agenda of installing a favourable regime in Afghanistan — the gateway to Central Asian Republics.
Given Rawalpindi’s heavy commitments, it would be loath to open the third front against India by increased firings across the line of Control to keep the Kashmir pot boiling. The Indian Army, unfortunately, has saved Rawalpindi from considering this reluctant choice. Instead of reviewing his options, Indian Army chief General Bipin Rawat has made things difficult for his own force by venting his frustration at civilian stone-pelters by saying they would be treated as terrorists. Rather than being scared, these civilians, in defiance, have been further emboldened in support of the swelling home-grown terrorists.
This has provided Rawalpindi with two advantages: It need not intensify cross-border firings since India is fulfilling its agenda by augmenting turbulence within, thereby enabling Pakistan to go to all conceivable global forums to highlight Indian atrocities on Kashmiris.
If only General Rawat had thought like the top operational commander, which he is, instead of being fixated on CI ops (tactical operations), he could have distracted Rawalpindi from its present priorities. A good option for him would have been to allow the J&K commanders to handle ground realities in collaboration with other security forces. He instead should have focussed on strengthening the operational level of war by providing field commanders with credible operational level options and war-waging materiel needed for conventional conflict. He should also reinvigorate the Chiefs of Staff Committee for better operational coordination between the three services, keeping the political leadership in the loop about the bigger geopolitical matrix.
For instance, once the CPEC becomes a reality, it would bring huge economic benefits to the region. So much so, that India, with its frugal infrastructure, will not be able to match the burgeoning prosperity unleashed by the CPEC-OBOR combine. Interestingly, Kashmiris are aware about this and relish the thought of reaping economic benefits from across the military line; in closeted conversations, they make the point that soon there would be three parties to the Kashmir dispute: India, Pakistan and China. They add tauntingly that India will not be able to stand up to China like it does to Pakistan.
With the CPEC in place, even the military pressure on India could increase in north Kashmir. China would not be averse to Pakistan seeking depth to the CPEC by assaulting north Kashmir where India is militarily weak. Given the increased military inter-operability between Pakistan military and the People’s liberation Army, and the continued tactical operations (CI ops) by the Indian Army, India would be extremely vulnerable at the operational level of war.
More so, India’s bigger defence supplier Russia, which has accepted to be a part of the OBOR and has developed close ties with Pakistan, might find it difficult to support India.
The inescapable conclusion for India is for Modi to seriously consider attending the OBOR summit. This could open up new vistas for improved relations with Pakistan and China, and show a way forward for India to become a leading power.
(The writer is co-author with Ghazala Wahab of the recent book Dragon On Our Doorstep)