The last time the Hurriyat Conference in Kashmir split, it spawned an assortment of new militant outfits. Now, as the group seems to be on the verge of another break-up, New Delhi must be prepared for the chaos that will follow
What is common between the population census and Kashmir’s separatist Hurriyat ConferenceIJ Both essentially deal with a headcount. The Hurriyat seeks a plebiscite in Jammu & Kashmir in order to decide the political future of the region. Also, the census is conducted every 10 years and the population increases at an average of 10 per cent. The Hurriyat splits every 10 years and produces new outfits claiming their allegiance to the ‘freedom struggle’ of Kashmir.
The All Parties Hurriyat Conference was cobbled together in 1993 to provide a political representation to the separatist movement in Kashmir. The armed insurgency in 1989 set the stage for separatist politics and the APHC’s formation was not without the militants’ consent. Umar Farooq, all of 20 years of age then, was the first chairman of the Conference that had 23 constituents including political parties and a bevy of religious, reformist and trade-union groups. Farooq was the consensus choice given his position as mirwaiz or head preacher of Kashmir — a title he had inherited from his father Maulvi Muhammad Farooq who was assassinated on May 21, 1990.
While the real challenge to Indian rule in Kashmir was posed by Pakistan-backed militants, the APHC turned into a potent forum that allowed political and diplomatic representation to Kashmiri separatists. With recognition from Pakistan and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, the APHC became a parallel power center in Srinagar with its headquarters at the posh Rajbagh. Foreign diplomats frequented the APHC’s office, which many say became the postal address for the separatist movement in Kashmir. New Delhi also recognised the APHC when it allowed the group to run the now-defunct Kashmir Awareness Bureau in the national capital.
Observers say that the APHC was vital and effective until militants ruled the roost in Kashmir. Post-1994, the sway of militants dwindled when the authorities began the optimum use of counter-insurgents. This led to the re-activation of mainstream political forces in the region, which had bid adieu to Kashmir after the Kalashnikovs had begun roaring. Still, between 1996 and 2002, when Mr Farooq Abdullah was Chief Minister of J&K — more through the barrel of the gun than popular support — the APHC remained a vital separatist block. It was only after the 2002 election when the public mood, especially in the rural areas, turned in favour of Unionist politicians that the Hurriyat really began to lose ground.
Opinions vary regarding popular participation in the 2002 election. But there is no denying that it caused the Conference to split right through the middle. The APHC had resolved that it would not participate in the election and had threatened to launch a poll-boycott campaign in the embattled region. However, the Hurriyat leadership including the Mirwaiz, Abdul Gani Bhat, Bilal lone and Abbas Ansari ultimately refrained from calling a boycott. Instead, they remained indifferent to the poll.
Syed Ali Shah Geelani, who had also served as APHC chairman, was behind bars during the 2002 election. When he was released in 2003 from Ranchi jail, he launched a tirade against his colleagues for paying a Nelson’s eye to the poll. He even complained that one APHC constituent, the People’s Conference, had fielded proxy candidates in Kupwara. He pointed out that Sofi Mohiuddin, a Minister in Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s Government was a PC proxy.
Geelani’s objections were not considered by the Conference and he chose to part ways. The APHC broke into two factions — moderates and hardliners. This first split came exactly a decade after the APHC’s formation.
Most of the constituents picked one side or the other with the influential Jamaat-e-Islami siding with Geelani. Interestingly, the bifurcation of the APHC also gave rise to a third separatist camp. The pro-independence Jammu and Kashmir liberation Front, the all-women group Dukhtaran-e-Millat and the Kashmir High Court Bar Association, all of which were APHC constituents, chose to remain non-aligned.
Shabir Shah, who had been expelled from the APHC in 1994 for meeting with the then US Ambassador to India Frank Wisner, also maintained a safe distance from both factions, though he later joined the Mirwaiz’s faction.
Now, another decade down the line, the Hurriyat is on the verge of another fragmentation. Three constituents of the Mirwaiz’s faction — the Democratic Freedom Party of Shabir Shah, the National Front of Nayeem Khan and the Mahaz-e-Azadi of Azam Inquilabi — have been shown the door by the Mirwaiz for their alleged anti-alliance activities. The Mirwaiz has shot off a letter to the convener of his group Yusuf Naseem, based in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, to delink the trio as they have “embarked on a separate path and left Hurriyat on their own”.
Shah, Khan and Inquilabi are not comfortable with the Mirwaiz’s style of functioning. Though they have clung to the Mirwaiz’s faction, they have not attended any meetings or participated in the group’s events. The areas of divergence have not been specified.
Khan is a votary of dialogue while Shah and Inquilabi have not refrained from participation. Shah controversially met with the New Delhi’s interlocutor KC Pant, while Inquilabi, the founder of the Muzaffarabad-based United Jehad Council, shunned violence and returned to Kashmir, obviously with an undertaking to supplement the peace process. He is known to have met with one of the Central interlocutors at Nehru Guest House in Srinagar.
Khan and Shah are believed to be floating a third faction of the Conference. This will encourage factionalism in constituent parties. A common refrain in Kashmir is that the Muzaffarabad-based chapter takes care of financing the separatist groups. Many of these groups are one-man parties, which thrive on issuing Press statements and ensuring their publication in local media. The third Hurriyat faction will only boost the number of such groups.
While the authorities have gained enough skills to contain separatists like Geelani, who is constantly under house-arrest, and ensure law and order in the region by enforcing localised and undeclared curfew spells, they have not succeeded in managing the separatists on the military front. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may seek credit for reducing violence by 10-fold in his nine year tenure but actually in 2013, the militants became more lethal. Compared to 33 and 15 fatalities in 2011 and 2012 respectively, security forces suffered 53 deaths in 2013. Militants also carried out some high-profile attacks. Against this backdrop, the continued fragmentation of Hurriyat Conference may not be good news for New Delhi.