Misplaced anxiety in Washington about the ongoing state of affairs in Afghanistan will only boost the morale of the Taliban. An unstable Afghanistan is a strategic risk no country in the region and beyond can afford
It is a Dickensian scenario in Afghanistan today, as Afghanistan is passing through the spasm of elections to choose its future president. The situation on the ground is euphoric at one level and eerie at another. To quote Dickens, it is experiencing both the spring of hope and winter of despair. In a way, Afghanistan stands at the margins today. It can either consolidate the process of change or descend into chaos and disaster.
Obama’s salvo
Almost a month into the campaign for presidential elections, President Obama poured cold water on the enthusiasm shown by the candidates when he reiterated his zero-option in Afghanistan in his telephonic conversation with Afghanistan President Karzai. In line with the show of impatience from his colleagues, Obama pressurised Karzai to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) to ensure the presence of American forces in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Even if media reports suggested that Obama agreed to wait till the presidential election is over upon Karzai’s insistence, his raking up the issue betrayed a sense of misplaced anxiety in Washington about the ongoing state of affairs in Afghanistan.
Music to Taliban ears
Such show of anxieties ends up boosting the morale of the Taliban. Any threat of US inaction beyond 2014 is music to Taliban ears, while it clearly discredits the democratic forces, the international community led by the US has raised over a decade in Afghanistan.
Only a week ago on February 22, 2014, the Taliban forces attacked a checkpoint in Kunar province close to Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan and killed at least 20 Afghan soldiers. The YouTube clip covering the memorial service in honour of those killed in Kunar indicated how rattled the Afghan forces were. As the coffins were being carried past heavily clad Afghan soldiers, one could distinctly mark the nervousness among them. Two helicopters were seen to be hovering around the ground in apprehension of fresh attacks from Taliban.
Election scenario: Democracy the best revenge
In the midst of it all, the electoral campaigns are rolling on despite threats issued by the Taliban. With each passing day it is acquiring its own gravitas. Coalitions of interests are being worked out among 11 candidates to reduce the possibility of a run-off election. The process of coalition-making is likely to gather momentum in the coming days. Already, Karzai’s elder brother Qayum has pulled out of the race in support of Zalmay Rassoul, former foreign minister in the Karzai cabinet and a Pashtun, despite endorsement of his candidature by a Kandahari Jirga. Septuagenarian Zalmay thus emerges as a fourth potent candidate in the race who could make it to the run-off.
The other three leading the campaign are Abdullah Abdullah — half-Tajik, half-Pashtun and an ophthalmologist by profession — Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank official known for his liberal initiatives, and former Mujahideen commander Abdul Rab Rasool Sayyaf.
Among these four presidential aspirants, save Zalmay, all others have former warlords in their ranks, which carry the names of two vice-presidential nominees. If Sayyaf has Tajik warlord Ismail Khan, Ghani has Uzbek strongman Dostum, and Abdullah has both Hizb-e-Islami leader Mohammad Khan, and Hazara chieftain Mohammad Mohaqiq with tainted human rights records. However, the people of Afghanistan seem to have forgiven them all and hope they will get into the mainstream in the democratic process. Despite concerns in certain quarters, especially in the western media, one cannot envision Afghanistan switching to quality democracy over three elections. Democracy avenges itself in patient ways.
Abdullah vs Ghani: Run-off inevitable!
As it stands today, Abdullah and Ashraf appear to have overtaken others in the race so far. Abdullah, who did pose a challenge to Karzai in the last election may reap a good harvest in the non-Pashtun areas and because of his alliance with Hizb, he may also improve upon his performance in Pashtun areas in the 2009 election. However, Ghani with his calculated alliance with Uzbek Dostum and Hazara Sarwar Danish, he is also expected to tear into the non-Pashtun constituencies. Similarly, Abdullah may also lose out on Tajik votes because of Ismaili Khan’s presence in Syyaf’s list. Ghani could score over Zalmay as a Pashtun, because of Zalmay’s bachelorhood, which is not an acceptable thing among the Pashtuns, but he may lose out to Sayyaf, who is likely to garner the support of conservatives because of his well-known orthodox views. Thus, even if Abdullah and Ghani are ahead of others, they may not quite get to the 50 per cent mark and avoid a run-off.
In all likelihood, there will be a second round of election and this goes against Abdullah’s interests. In any such a run-off, Abdullah is likely to confront a strong alliance among the Pashtun candidates and lose the fray in the end. Unless, of course, he is rewarded by the electorate for his bold campaign as one can witness from his way of dodging his security and getting onto the roof of his SUV and trying to woo the electorate. At another level, he is taking unnecessary risks; his rally has been attacked once, and who knows, the Taliban or any of his political opponents may eliminate him during the campaign.
The potential for violence remains. The Taliban may also effectively disenfranchise a substantial section of the electorate by their threats of non-participation. low polling in Pashtun hinterland may also favour Abdullah.
Future imperfect
In any case, the good news is that the election is on, and it will throw up a winner, contested as the process may be. The bad news is that the resolution of electoral complaints, and the prospect of a second-round run-off, may delay the declaration of final results and prolong the continuation of Karzai’s caretaker government and worsen the situation of drift in US-Afghanistan relations.
Against this backdrop, while the democratic process is on despite the challenges, the new government is likely to face a battery of challenges, too difficult for them to meet. The pull-out of the western forces by 2014 end and the US threat of zero option have led to a slump in Afghan economic scenario. After a decade of artificial growth pumped by international assistance, the rate of economic growth has already plummeted to about 3.1 per cent this year from 14.4 per cent last year. Moreover, the recent US budget has decreased provisions of $2.6 billion for Afghanistan in Federal Year 2014-15.
According to Afghan government calculations last year, in the annual budget of Afghanistan 74 per cent of developmental expenditure and 44 per cent of security expenditure were catered to by the international community. In view of the declining interest in Afghanistan, a realistic reassessment is being made by Afghan analysts today about the future shape of the Afghan economy and security. As much as Afghans would argue in favour of getting out of dependency syndrome induced by a decade of aid, any sudden removal of crutches may force the economy and polity to flounder, reversing the order of change rapidly. Any decision to lower aid to Afghanistan must be well-calibrated subject to the situation on the ground.
Reconcile interests, ensure Afghan stability
It is most likely that the next president of Afghanistan will seal the BSA and facilitate US presence in some form, primarily as an insurance against return of Taliban to Kabul. However, due attention must be paid to empowering and strengthening the ill-equipped, ill-trained and ill-paid Afghan security forces. Today, only about 11 per cent of them are literate and the training they receive is grossly inadequate. According to some liberal estimate put out some years ago, the Afghan security forces will require about $4 billion per year for few more years to evolve into a real force to provide security and stability to Afghanistan. There has to be a regional and international consensus to ensure continuation of support in this regard.
Moreover, despite their divergent strategic interests, the countries in the region will have to find a way of getting along together to create a situation conducive for Afghan stability. As a regional power, India has liberally contributed to reconstruction efforts in the war-torn country. It has expressed its openness to discuss all issues of concern with Pakistan and expressed its desire to stay engaged. China and India have bid for Afghan minerals and should coordinate their efforts to promote forces of stability. With the present thaw in US-Iran relations, they must also try to marry their perspectives on Afghanistan.
If they fail to do that the alternative scenario in Afghanistan would be much worse. An unstable Afghanistan is a strategic risk no country in the region and beyond can afford. One can only hope that the winter of despair will be overtaken by the spring of hope.
(Dr Ashok Behuria is Coordinator, South Asia Centre, and Fellow at IDSA, New Delhi. The views expressed here are his own)