The 18th SAARC summit may not have been spectacular, but India’s leadership role in pushing for greater connectivity and trade has potential to induce fresh dynamism into the regional organization
The 18th SAARC Summit concluded in Kathmandu on November 27 with a tame joint declaration titled Deeper Integration for Peace and Prosperity. The 36-point declaration covered a whole gamut of issues ranging from poverty alleviation, education, healthcare, migration, youth and women welfare and combating terror to media, telecom, tourism, governance and blue economy.
Cynics advocating winding down of SAARC as a useless talk-shop — unworthy of serious diplomatic investment for a country like India, which could better deal with neighbours and serve its strategic interests through bilateral and sub-regional engagements — would look at the jamboree at the Dhulikhel resort as an impotent exercise for an otherwise hyperactive Prime Minister like Modi, who seems to be in a hurry to wipe out the image of India during the last decade as a country unsure of itself. However, is it right to be so dismissive about the processIJ let us take stock of the ground reality as it presents itself.
Shadow of face-off between India, Pak
The Kathmandu Summit took place after a gap of three years, largely delayed due to political shifts and turns within Nepal. Finally the dates were announced in August this year, a few days before the cancellation of talks between India and Pakistan, two important SAARC member countries. This development cast its shadow on the summit meeting.
The developments that took place between these two countries in the intervening period were far from encouraging. The pessimists held SAARC meeting this time was doomed, while optimists hoped it would provide an opportunity for leaders of India and Pakistan to reestablish contact.
Closer to the date, it seemed improbable that the two leaders would even have an informal meeting at the sidelines. It also surfaced that Pakistan would veto the proposals for intra-SAARC surface connectivity and energy cooperation, primarily because they were backed by India.
Pakistani refusal to use cars supplied by India for transporting dignitaries during the conferences was splashed in the media as yet another proof of Pakistani obduracy on the issue of regional cooperation. That the summit was taking place on November 26, anniversary of Mumbai attacks, was another issue Pakistan might have had reasons to be cautious about.
Then there were also talks of Nepal and Pakistan pushing for China’s membership of SAARC which raised the decibels of cantankerous analysts in Indian news channels. Nepal’s disinclination to arrange for the Indian Prime Minister’s proposed visit and public address in a few places in the Terai region was yet another dampener. All in all, the expectations from the summit were never so low.
leader-speak at the summit
Amid such negative vibes, the summit took off in the most unambitious manner possible. While the leaders pledged their support to the process of regional engagement and emphasised on result-oriented endeavour, they raised specific issues relating to their own experience.
Sri lankan President Rajapaksa talked about the need to “join hands to fight external threats”. Bhutanese PM Tobgay harped on harnessing “collective resources to reduce high levels of poverty in the region”. Abdulla Yameen, President of Maldives, echoed the sentiments of his fellow countrymen when he argued passionately about the need to shed complacency on the issue of climate change and exhibit a stronger commitment to deal with the issue. Nepalese PM Sushil Koirala also talked about “climate justice mechanism” and the need to intervene collectively ‘in critical areas as agriculture, health, sanitation, education, women empowerment’.
Bangladeshi PM Sheikh Hasina stressed on “multimodal physical connectivity between the territories and communities of SAARC member states for ensuring overall peace, progress and stability across the South Asia”. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani expressed his concerns about states embracing and sponsoring non-state actors and held that such strategies were counterproductive and had blowback effects. Nawaz Sharif, PM of Pakistan, emphasised on the need for collective action to fight common challenges like ‘poverty, illiteracy, disease, malnourishment, and unemployment’.
Modi’s call for seamless connectivity
Prime Minister Modi started by saying that he dreamt for India “the future I wish for our entire region” and held in a poetic vein that it was not enough for countries to stay near each other as geography has ordained. There was a need for countries living in close proximity to stay together (not only paas paas but also saath saath).
Expressing his desire to take every possible step to boost regional integration, Modi referred to India’s efforts to build special economic relationships with each of the SAARC member countries, including Pakistan. Announcing India’s launching of a SAARC satellite by 2016, Modi held that only through seamless connectivity, regional integration can become a reality and his priority was building infrastructure in the entire SAARC region.
Cloud of despair
Unfortunately, Modi’s enthusiasm about strengthening SAARC, seconded by all member-countries except perhaps Pakistan, could not defuse the overall consternation in the forum about the stiffness displayed by both Modi and Nawaz Sharif towards each other during the first day. The images of Modi and Nawaz refusing to even acknowledge each other’s presence dominated the TV screens leading to speculation that the 18th summit would be a victim of India-Pakistan differences.
That Modi held bilateral discussions on the sidelines with leaders of all countries except Pakistan was underlined by the media and projected as an indication that India and Pakistan were drifting away from each other, which might pose a grave challenge to smooth functioning of SAARC in future.
Three agreements
The three agreements that were opened up for discussion were (i) SAARC Motor Vehicle Agreement for the Regulation of Passenger and Cargo Vehicular Traffic, (ii) SAARC Regional Railway Agreement, and (iii) SAARC Framework Agreement on Energy Cooperation (Electricity).
It was widely reported that Pakistan was the only country having its reservations about the agreements on surface transport and communication. The reason for Pakistan’s hesitation was that its “internal processes” were not ready for such agreements. It was believed that Pakistan’s reservations were basically aimed at stalling Indian access to Afghanistan through Pakistan. Indian interest in connectivity might have alerted the security establishment in Pakistan about the obligations that would ensue from the first two agreements to allow India surface links through Pakistan, which it has been resisting resolutely for years now.
However, on the issue of energy cooperation, Pakistan seemed amenable to persuasion and it was regarded as the only agreement that could be signed during the summit meeting.
Retreat politics revives hope
Against such a tense environment, the relaxed environment at Dhulikhel on November 28 succeeded in dissipating the clouds of despair and bringing in some cheer to the SAARC delegates at last. Reports of Pakistan agreeing to sign the agreement on energy cooperation and buying three months’ time to finalise processes to sign other two agreements gradually poured in.
The summit ended with signing of the energy cooperation agreement by the foreign ministers and as present SAARC chair Sushil Koirala indicated, the SAARC leaders agreed to accord approval to the connectivity pacts within three months, which will boost intra-regional trade and people-to-people contact.
The most talked about outcome of the retreat interaction was the handshake between Modi and Nawaz Sharif and exchange of courtesies between the two. Even if nobody had any clue about what transpired between them in a short verbal exchange on camera, both leaders appeared quite relaxed and refreshed, which was welcomed by the media in both India and Pakistan. The SAARC leaders clapped and cheered the handshake and there was a visible sense of relief all around.
Prospects
As the 18th summit demonstrated, SAARC may not have been as successful a regional organisation as ASEAN and the EU, however, it still has a useful role to play in bringing the states of the region together and evolving consensus on issues of common concern. A region consisting states with shared history and culture, but also divided by historical legacies and political differences, is in dire need of a supra-state body like SAARC to provide a common platform where the leaders can meet regularly and build bridges with one another.
Moreover, the achievements of SAARC may not have been that spectacular, but that does not mean that the organisation will continue to operate below its potential for ever. India’s proactive participation in recent years and its leadership role in pushing for greater connectivity and trade have induced fresh dynamism into the organisation and if India can sustain its interest, SAARC will prove all cynics wrong soon.
(The writer is Coordinator and Fellow, South Asia Centre, IDSA, New Delhi)