On May 9, the South Koreans chose their future President Moon Jae-in. A former dissident has come to the “Blue House” (official name of the presidential palace) after the country’s Constitutional Court forced a snap poll by simply removing the first woman President, Park Geun-hye, from office. In fact, it was almost a year-long controversy that surrounded Park’s tenure which involved the misuse of her office by her close confidante Choi Soon-sil. Park became the first democratically elected President to be forced from office after the Constitutional Court upheld a parliamentary vote to impeach her in March. However much before the election, Moon was leading the opinion polls across the country, by giving a clear signal to all the other parties that he may become the new President of South Korea. It is interesting to note that Moon, as a student leader, launched massive protest movement against the dictatorship of Park’s father and former President Park Chung-hee in the 1970s for which he had to languish in the jail for months. And now, the same Moon, who once again spearheaded protest rallies and demanded the ouster of the strongman’s daughter has taken the reins the office of the President. This time, South Korea has witnessed unprecedented public outcry, and not only against Park. They have sent a stern warning to all the political elites against misusing the country’s high offices.
Moon has become the first-left-of-centre leader to occupy the presidency in almost a decade. He won 41 per cent of the votes polled among 13 candidates. However, his 17 per cent point lead over his runner-up, a conservative candidate, is recorded as the highest winning margin ever in the history of the country’s presidential poll. This election was entirely a different election as it was a snap poll. Hence the political parties got only 60 days for campaigning, unlike the 2012 election wherein Park was officially nominated as the presidential candidate of her party, four months before the election. And, all the parties had 240 days time for campaigning after the last day of candidates’ registration. This all had indirectly minimised the chances of new parties with immature candidates in the race to the Blue House. Moon was immediately sworn in as the President as soon as the votes had been counted. Unlike the past Presidents-elect, he did not have the luxury of a presidential transitional period of three months for entering the office.
Now, let’s see what has led Moon to victory in this crucial election. First of all, Moon is not a new player in South Korean political landscape. As a human rights lawyer and a veteran public personality, he and his Democratic Party were quite familiar with the people. However, the abuse of power scandal that rocked the presidency of Park substantially benefitted him. Second, his victory was no surprise for anyone as he was leading the opinion polls for the last four months. The Democratic Party received record support during the short campaign period after the election date was announced and much before the Park’s scandal came into light. Third, as of now Park is in jail. And this has brought a big boost in public confidence over the judiciary of the nation as it had rightly listened to the public mood. And as a result, (as many political observers noted), more than 77 per cent of the citizens voted in this election which itself is recorded as the highest turnout in 20 years. This helped Moon tower over all his opponents.
Fourth, his commitment to create more than 8,00,000 jobs for youngsters encouraged millions to rally behind him. And for this purpose, he has already established a “job-creation committee”. He wants to re-establish the faith in public eye that even without a high or right connection, one can secure a job. Fifth, his promise to set up a “truth committee” to look into the ongoing presidential scandal of Park was won him more confidence of the public. Sixth, he promised to root out corruption resulting from a tight link between the Government and the big business conglomerates in South Korea. Needless to say, this has become a standard practice in the country. And the last days of the Park regime had shown how South Korea’s top business empires, such as Samsung, are fast getting involved in dirty games for obtaining prized contracts for their companies. Today the heir-apparent of Samsung, lee Jae-yong, is under arrest in connection with Park’s scandal. His company has been charged with giving donations to non-profit foundations operated by Choi, a close friend of former President Park, in exchange for Government favours. Thus common people are far away from the power corridors wherein decisions are being made for their future, but without their presence.
Seventh, despite having 10 million grey voters (about 45 per cent of the total voters), who are known in South Korea as “5060 voters” (those who are older than 50 years), Moon won this election as normally the older people has never favoured a candidate from the reformist camp so far. When Moon contested against Park in 2012 presidential election he was mainly cornered by the older voters who surpassed the “2030 voters” (who are older than 20 years) and this helped her to make it to the coveted office. This time also the “2030 voters” were just 35 per cent. Probably what happened is that along with the young voters, a huge chunk of disenchanted citizens too stood behind him and this made the difference for Moon in this election.
Eighth, for the first time a presidential candidate voiced concerns for a rapprochement with the reclusive North Korean socialist regime and is willing to go to Pyongyang to seek better ties unlike the previous Presidents. Apart from this, he wanted to revive the historic “Sunshine Policy” towards the North so as to make the country a better neighbour in the coming days. Finally, he vowed to reconsider Park’s decision to deploy a US missile Defence system.
Whatsoever may be the reasons behind Moon’s victory, his struggle to grapple with the endemic problems of the country will no way be easier either. If we look at the new President’s background we can see that he grew up in poverty and his parents were refugees from North Korean port of Hungnam, which was evacuated immediately after the beginning of the Korean War in 1950. In the past, he worked as the chief of the staff at the office of the former liberal President Roh Moo-hyun. And then of course, he ran for the presidency in 2012. This all would definitely help him to sense the stark realities that his countrymen are encountering today.
When it comes to his neighbourhood, he needs to be extremely cautious. The Chinese Government is already registering its protest as Seoul has allowed the deployment of THAAD missiles in the country. Also it has been in the news that Xi Jinping’s regime is considering a boycott of South Korean goods. Again, Shinzo Abe’s is not happy in Japan as South Korea is once again bringing to light his country’s wartime activities. Indeed, rekindling of anti-Japanese protest rallies across South Korea may spoil the relationship between Tokyo and Seoul. At a time when North Korean monarch Kim Jong-un is spreading war hysteria across the continent, Moon must be very careful so as not to annoy any of the strategic nations such as China and Japan. On the other hand, both Beijing and Tokyo should also be
happy that after five rudderless months in South Korea, they are finally witnessing a President taking over and rebuilding ties across the neighbourhood.
Besides, at home he is facing a difficult situation as his party does not have a majority in the Parliament. And the next Parliamentary election will not be held before 2020, so he has to bring all permutations and combinations to the desk to survive and let his new Government work within no time. Many say that Moon is already raising the bar beyond the divisive politics of the nation and talks about working closely with the Opposition parties. And he rightly indicated this approach during his inaugural address when he said that the Opposition parties are “his partners in running the country”. He is willing to share more power with his Cabinet unlike any other President. However, he must be too cautious about a significant “resentful pocket of conservatives” led by leaders such as Hong Joon-pyo, who contested from Park’s former party and could win at least 24 per cent of the votes in this election. As these old school conservatives still resonate, and they are always against the reformists such as Moon, he needs to tread carefully.
As scandals roil, South Korean presidency and almost all public personalities are fast coming under scrutiny. And this eventually heats up the debate about the nefarious connection between “politics and business” in the country since its Independence. While trying either to de-link the chaeobols (business conglomerates) from politics or from any other sphere in public life, he must not try to undermine the grand contributions they made in offering the service to the nation. As many people in the country still believe that these chaebols have helped in lifting the country from poverty to a great extent.
Moon has taken over at a time when a large number of his countrymen are expecting that he will bring major changes in the public offices. They are tired of “elite influences” in almost all spheres of public life, starting from securing a Government job to winning a contract for construction. Many of the ordinary South Koreans blame it on the gargantuan role played by the chaebols in politics. “Money, power and family”, all together have deeply entered in political life and now, the common people obviously want a break from this vicious cycle. How President Moon will meet the expectations of people will shape the future course of action in “The land of Morning Calm”, as it is popularly known. He has won an easy battle, but governing South Korea at this juncture will be much tougher task than ever before.
(The writer is an expert on international affairs)