Bilateral mechanisms like energy and power rank high on the priority list of Bangladesh and India during Sheikh Hasina’s upcoming visit. But there has been no talk on the Teesta pact. It’s possible that some headway may be made
When Narendra Modi took over as the Prime Minister, three years ago, he surprised everyone by inviting the heads of state from the neighbouring countries for his swearing-in ceremony, sending a signal that he is keen on ‘neighbours first’ concept. On his part, Modi has taken this policy forward by visiting most neighbouring countries and improving ties with them.
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will be visiting India from April 7 to 10, after a gap of seven and a half years. Her visit is important for both, Hasina and Modi, as it will showcase improved neighbourhood ties between the two countries.
However, the Teesta water- sharing agreement, which is of interest to Hasina, may not be on the table although some optimists expect some surprises that there could be something on water security. If resolved, this will strengthen the hands of Hasina as the Opposition has been critical of her inability to get the Treaty signed since September 2011, when the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Dhaka.
Teesta was almost clinched then, but it was West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who backed out in the last minute, embarrassing Singh. Despite the disappointment, in Dhaka’s official circles, Singh’s visit had been described as a landmark visit. Modi’s visit in 2015 had taken the ties forward.
Dhaka has been repeatedly raising the Teesta issue in almost all forums with New Delhi. However, India has been consistent that the Treaty will be signed only after ‘internal discussions’ with Banerjee. Although Article 253 of the Constitution gives the Centre the power to conclude any Treaty, but it cannot ignore the concerns of the people of the State. Banerjee wants to protect the interests of five districts in north Bengal, which would be affected if more water were released to Bangladesh. And there is no meeting point on this issue so far.
Earlier, Banerjee had softened her stand and supported the endorsement of the land Boundary Agreement (lBA) in Parliament, in 2015, which could not be signed for 41 years and also accompanied Modi to Dhaka. Persuaded by the Centre, she also visited Bangladesh where Hasina gave her a royal welcome in February 2015. Banerjee promised them to be supportive, but since her return, there has been no trace of softening on her part. The question, therefore, is: Why has Banerjee been blocking the Teesta pactIJ First, she has her own domestic compulsions and she cannot go against the interests of her State.
Second, she holds that the flow of the river has weakened when it reached West Bengal because of the hydropower projects constructed in Sikkim. She suggested a trilateral meeting between West Bengal, Sikkim and New Delhi.
Third, Banerjee is sulking about the way the Modi Government has been dealing with the Narada and Saradha scam, which involves her party leaders. Also, she needs huge financial package from the Centre, as West Bengal has a debt burden of nearly Rs 10,000 crore.
Moreover, Banerjee is worried about the growing influence of the BJP. She has hardened her stand. She recently said on a TV channel: “But I can only say I have not been consulted so far. I don’t have any clue about the discussions. I cannot put a seal of approval on the Treaty at the cost of my State’s interest.”
However, Banerjee and other Chief Ministers may attend the banquet hosted by President Pranab Mukherjee in honour of Hasina, who will be the guest in the Rashtrapati Bhavan.
India-Bangladesh cooperation has been enhanced in several fields, including energy and bilateral trade, as India accorded duty-free benefits to Bangladesh on a large number of items. On energy security, India is not only assisting Bangladesh in producing electricity, but is also exporting 600 MW of electricity and has promised to export more if Dhaka wants.
From the Dhaka side, Hasina has been cooperating in curbing the activities of the Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence in smuggling fake Indian currency notes, drug trafficking and infiltration of terrorists across the border. She has also been supportive of India in isolating Pakistan in the Saarc forum by refusing to attend the summit last November. Now it is pay back time for Delhi.
In view of the above, the upcoming state visit of Hasina is significant. Ground work has already been done by Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar, who paid a two-day visit in February to chalk out the areas of bilateral cooperation, including border security, power, energy, shipping and railways. Most important of all, India is to offer $500 million line of credit for Bangladesh, which is the highest ever to any country.
After signing the lBA in 2015, Teesta is the sole point of friction but they could not find a way out so far. Realistically, no one in Dhaka or New Delhi expects the Teesta agreement to be concluded during the upcoming visit of Hasina. But some experts predict that there could be some surprise.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)