It is crucial for Modi to keep up the momentum in economic, foreign policy and political arenas in the next two years to come back to power. The truth is that he has achieved much, but there is more to be done in the coming years
On February 19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will complete 1,000 days in office. This is indeed a time not only to look back but also to look forward. What is his progress reportIJ Has he passed with distinction, as the BJP would have us believeIJ Or has he failed, as the Congress-led opposition claimsIJ The truth is that he has achieved much, but there is much more to do, if he bids for power for a second time in 2019.
The BJP has increased its tally and is in power in eight States and in coalition in five States. The party has done well in the Assembly polls in the past three years, except in Bihar and Delhi. The BJP has overtaken the Congress and has emerged as the biggest party in its membership. The results of this year’s five Assembly polls will be known on March 11
The next two years may well be defining years, as Prime Minister Modi moves to the rest of his term. BJP strategists have already begun preparations for the 2019 lok Sabha election.
Every step has been taken with his second term in view, be it the surgical strike against Pakistan or the demonetisation or preparations for this year’s Assembly polls as well as the next year’s eight Assembly elections. With every step, he is looking to expand his voter base apart from retaining the core voters. Did he not prepare for his prime ministerial race from 2012IJ
Modi’s success is more visible in foreign policy initiatives as he has raised the profile of India abroad and also built up the diaspora. Relations with the US have improved in a marked manner so also ties with Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri lanka and Afghanistan, but Modi’s Pakistan policy has flip-flopped. The African conference in 2015 had increased the interaction with the 54 African countries. With latin America and Japan also, there is quiet improvement. Though Moscow is a little concerned over the India-US ties.
However, what is important is the rest of his term. The Assembly polls are due in Gujarat, Nagaland, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Himachal Pradesh, Tripura and Mizoram in 2018. In 2019, along with the lok Sabha poll, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, and Odisha will go for elections. If the BJP does well, Modi will have extra manoeuvrability to attempt more political and economic reforms.
Second, March 11 will show whether Modi can have a person of his choice as President and Vice President. Elections for these are scheduled in July 2017. With Modi on his campaign mode and adopting a confrontational attitude in Parliament, any agreement with the Opposition will need a lot of give and take. The fight with the Congress would only sharpen because, in States such as Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, there will be a direct fight between the two.
When it comes to domestic performance, the economy is doing better and the GDP growth is pegged at seven per cent, which is good. Inflation is almost half of what it was a couple of years ago. India’s Budget deficit has shrunk to 3.9 per cent of GDP, from 4.4 per cent. Foreign direct investment and foreign exchange reserves have reached new heights.
Since there is less room for more high-stake economic measures, Modi has to build on what is at hand to generate brisk economic growth and spend big money on infrastructure and rural economy. Where it has not done well is in job creation and the failure to get reform measures passed in Parliament, though that is work in progress.
The jury is out on the demonetisation move: Whether it is going to be a pain or a gain. Even the BJP leaders are watching whether the gamble would pay political dividend to the BJP. Modi’s masterstroke on the demonetisation was more political than economic, as he is targeting the votes from the poor and to add this constituency to his traditional base of Brahmin, Bania and the OBCs. On the black money issue, will Modi take it forward to target the benami holders and attempt electoral reformsIJ This could be a double-edged sword.
The second is the agricultural sector, which needs more money to be pumped in. This year’s good monsoon is happy news for the Government, but one cannot be sure about the next two years in view of the vagaries of monsoon. The increasing number of farmers’ suicide should be addressed too.
Third, the country had benefited by the slide in the oil price, but it is not known whether this will continue to be the same for the next year. A steep rise in fuel prices will hurt the common man, as it would affect the transportation sector also.
Fourth, Modi has to ensure implementation of several new schemes he had launched, like Make in India, Skill India, Swachch Bharat and Jan Dhan Yojana, to name a few, so that the benefit reaches the people. There could also be other imponderables.
In short, it is crucial for Modi to keep up the momentum in economic, foreign policy and political arenas in the next two years, to come back to power.
(The writer is a senior political commentator and syndicated columnist)