If Poroshenko is unable to end armed conflict in the eastern part of the country and mend fractured relations with Russia, his landslide victory will mean nothing for Ukraine citizens
The chocolate tycoon and pro-European billionaire President of Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, sees the country’s future in Europe but with pragmatic relations with Russia. The untoward incident of pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine town of Sloviansk shooting down a military helicopter with a Russian anti-aircraft system highlights the array of challenges Poroshenko faces, both long and short terms, in navigating Ukraine out of its current crisis.
The most immediate test Poroshenko faces is the ongoing armed conflict in the largely rebel-controlled eastern provinces of Donetsk and luhansk, where clashes between pro-Russia rebels and Kiev forces have recently escalated. Hours after rebel troops stormed the Donetsk international Airport, Kiev responded with air strikes and a ground assault, leaving 40 separatists dead and several wounded.
The new Ukrainian government pledged to send a second battalion of the National Guard to the east in the wake of the intensified fighting. Poroshenko, the first Ukrainian president since Independence who is fluent in English, has vowed to wipe out the rebels, offering amnesty only to those who have not taken up arms against Kiev. “Nobody in any civilised state will hold negotiations with terrorists,” Poroshenko has said. However, the separatists have shown no signs of backing down.
On the economic front, Poroshenko has sought additional time before completing a major economic and political deal linking Ukraine with the EU. Though his business acumen may help him to revive Ukraine’s struggling economy, some observers are worried that implementation of austerity measures, called by International Monetary Fund as part of the package of loan, will turn an already dire economic situation in Ukraine from bad to worse. The “economic restructuring” Ukraine must accept in exchange for the IMF’s $17 billion loan includes “phasing out energy subsidies” and cutting down pension spending, according to a December IMF release.
Energy subsidies are one of the means the Ukrainian government has consistently used to pacify its poorest citizens, allowing Ukrainians to heat their homes and businesses that depend on cheap energy. Eliminating them could cause energy prices to rise up to 425 per cent. This rise in prices, combined with pension cuts, may intensify civil unrest.
If Poroshenko, owner of Ukraine’s largest confectionery manufacturer Roshen, is serious about reining in the separatists, normalising relations with Russia should top his agenda. Both Kiev and Moscow have expressed willingness to reopen communication. “We shouldn’t miss the chance that we have now to establish an equal dialogue of mutual respect considering the vote that has taken place, the results of which Russia is ready to respect,” stated Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei lavrov. Poroshenko has also emphasised the importance of re-establishing relations with Russia, who he called a valuable partner.
Poroshenko is hoping to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Earlier, Putin had said that he would respect the verdict delivered by the Ukrainian people in electing Poroshenko, but so far he has not recognised the legitimacy of the election itself. Poroshenko’s election is a step towards stabilising Ukraine, but it is only the first one.
Unfortunately, neither side seems willing to begin a serious dialogue. Russia has stepped up its military presence along Ukraine’s Eastern border and sent war planes into Ukrainian airspace. Poroshenko in retaliation called on the US to increase sanctions against Russia and give Ukraine direct military aid.
After being elected as President, Poroshenko in his first interview said, “You can consider it a referendum. Ninety-six per cent of Ukrainians voted for the unity of the country… So the President has a unique chance to unite the country and has a level of support which he never had before.”
As of now, Poroshenko is buoyed up by the tide of popular support that put him into office. However, if he is unable to simultaneously end armed conflict in the eastern part of the country and mend fractured relations with Russia, while also uniting a divided parliament and passing unpopular austerity measures, his honeymoon period could end quickly.
Poroshenko’s victory could be a new beginning for Ukraine, which is going through the most difficult period in its 23-year history as an independent country, but he will have to strike a balance between Russia and the West.
(The writer is a Phd scholar)