India is a victim of as well as contributor to climate change. It needs to focus on mitigation and adaptation strategies that reduce vulnerability to extreme weather conditions and build resilience
Climate change in India is increasingly assuming a disturbing and volatile proportion as the associated costs are no longer restricted to the economic or environmental sphere but they now also involve and threaten human lives as well. Driven by elevated carbon dioxide emissions from factories, use of fossil fuels and pollution caused by thermal power plants besides a plethora of other sources, climate patterns across the nation have undergone a change for the worse. These changes in climatic conditions have adversely impacted the industry and agriculture alike.
In particular, the agriculture sector has been hit hard as climate change has induced shifts in the growing season for major crops. For instance, agricultural output of rice has reduced by 40 per cent. Since nearly 60 per cent of the agriculture is dependent on rain-fed crops, even modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall due to climatic variations can cause a major dip in food production. Given these conditions and the fact that 56 per cent of the Indian population is dependent on agriculture, future looks grim.
In the backdrop of these conditions, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that climate related factors can cause India’s gross domestic product to decline by up to nine per cent. As India’s economy is grappling with problems posed by deteriorating climatic conditions, globally, the situation is no different.
Climate change is likely to cripple businesses world over, warns a recent study by the Economist Intelligence Unit. The study predicts that private investors may lose up to $4.2 trillion to extreme weather events by 2100, even if global warming is held at plus two degree celsius, the level the world is trying to achieve today.
Apart from affecting the Indian economy, climate change has begun to threaten human lives and is now considered as an emerging threat that needs to be neutralised on a priority basis. In fact, the World Health Organisation has predicted that between 2030 and 2050, climate change will cause 2,50,000 additional deaths in the subcontinent region owing to vector-borne diseases, especially malaria and dengue and due to an increase in water-borne diseases such as cholera and hepatitis. The incidence of respiratory disorders is also expected to go up due to declining air quality.
India’s economic growth so far has been powered by fossil fuels, which undermine the general health of the population. Clean and renewable energy is yet to play a significant role in India’s growth story. As a result, India has a dual distinction of being a victim as well as a contributor to climate change. India is the fourth largest carbon emitter, although its per capita emission remains one of the lowest among emerging economies like China, Brazil and Mexico.
According to estimates, India will witness a temperature rise of about two to four degree celsius by 2030. This will create a desperate situation wherein, economic slowdown will be coupled with a huge ‘health burden’ unless climate change is addressed and an efficient low-carbon economic growth strategy is initiated.
Climate change adaption strategy must focus on building solutions by integrating latest technology with traditional indigenous knowledge. This will help build resilience on the ground and enable sectors such as agriculture to promote food security as well as help absorb climate shocks and seasonal stresses. The Government must also ensure that appropriate support programmes are launched to compliment these strategies in order to respond to the mounting climate impact and ensure that a buffer is maintained between climatic stresses and the economy.
In the urban areas, the Government must build community consensus on critical issues that have direct impact in tackling climate change. With public opinion firmly on its side, the Government can design and implement effective strategies that can cope-up with the changing climate.
The NDA Government has taken commendable steps in this direction with the ‘smart city’ concept. These cities allow ample usage of renewable energy, which in turn will help us reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
But continuity and stability in policies and programmes is essential in order to wage an effective battle against climate change and for this, political consensus needs to be achieved on matters pertaining to the environment.
The cost of acting to reduce global emissions, as estimated in the Stern Review report would be one per cent to two per cent of the global GDP, compared to five per cent to 20 per cent damage costs to the GDP if the problem is ignored. India must realise the same and ensure that it reduces dependence on fossil fuels, thereby bringing down emissions.
Strategies that seek to reduce vulnerability to climatic hazards needs to be the cornerstone of India’s efforts to build resilience for the future. This will ensure triangular success of securing sustainable economic growth, environmental conservation and safeguarding human lives.