In his address, the Prime Minister of India lavished fulsome praise on the Prachandas and the Baburam Bhattarais (without naming them), who have given up the gun and adopted the democratic process of the ballot
Nepal’s President Ram Baran Yadav told Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the latter’s August 3 address to Nepal’s Constituent Assembly: “Your speech has won Nepal’s heart.” That it surely has, given the rousing response the address received and the gushy reports that have appeared in the media, including in the West (Daily Mail and New York Times being two of the many). There were numerous beaming faces as Mr Modi spoke, but few would have been happier than former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and his Maoist colleagues who heard him with rapt attention and respect, and frequently nodded their heads in appreciation. This, because the Indian Prime Minister, although without naming them, generously complimented the lot for having joined the political mainstream.
This is the real highlight of Mr Modi’s address. Yet, strangely, much of the media appears to have missed the import of an Indian Prime Minister, and that too belonging to the Bharatiya Janata Party, warmly hailing the Maoists of Nepal. When Mr Modi said that the people of Nepal had veered away from the path of yudh (war-violence) to embrace Buddh (lord Buddha-peace), he could have had none in mind except the Maoists led by Mr Prachanda and Mr Baburam Bhattarai. When he praised people who had given up the “bullet for the ballot” in working towards the welfare of the people of Nepal, he must have had none but the Maoists on his mind’s radar. When he observed that the Constitution of Nepal, which is in the making, will be a testament to the will of the people anywhere to adopt peaceful means to achieve political ends, he could not but have been referring to the contribution Maoist lawmakers will be making to the process. When he spoke of the transition from shastra (weapons) to shaastra (Constitution), he had just the same Maoists in mind. The interesting part is that the Prime Minister repeated his admiration on more than one occasion during his 45-minute long speech.
Soon after Mr Modi took charge at New Delhi, there was apprehension that his Government and he personally (given his strong stance against the ultra-left) would tilt towards the Centrist Nepali Congress and seek to sideline the Maoists led by Mr Prachanda, regardless of the fact that they had become part of the mainstream. There were also fears that since the Bharatiya Janata Party had always ‘nurtured’ a soft spot for the monarchy against which the Maoists waged a battle (though on many past occasions they had preferred the King to an “expansionist” India), New Delhi would take a less than enthusiastic position on the arrival of the Prachanda-led Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) to Nepal’s already complicated political scene.
In fact, The Diplomat, a website that specialises on the Asia-Pacific, recently published an article which speculated on whether the monarchy in Nepal would be resurrected with the BJP coming to power in India. Neither the BJP nor Mr Modi is naïve enough to imagine that the monarchy has a chance to make a comeback. The Prime Minister said during his just-concluded visit that he foresaw the strengthening of a “federal, democratic, republic” Nepal. Moreover, it is unfair to target the BJP for its ‘soft spot’ for the now-history monarchy in Nepal. The Congress had happily done business with the King of the day; with the aristocracy led by the Rana clan; and with political parties — who were all often at the same time battling one another.
The BJP’s near hostility to the Maoists was evident back in mid-2008-mid-2009 during Mr Prachanda’s barely 10-month tenure as Prime Minister. As the principal Opposition, the BJP had not raised an eyebrow when the Maoist rulers then had blamed New Delhi for interfering in the affairs of their governance, nor had it protested when the Congress-led UPA leadership ensured Mr Prachanda’s exit from power. Going back further, when the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance was in power at the Centre, the party and its Government had kept the Maoists at an arm’s length.
While this was understandable since the Maoists had not only not joined the political mainstream then, but were waging a violent People’s War against the Establishment — much like what the Maoists are engaged in India right now — it served to underline the deep hostility with which the BJP held Nepal’s ultra-leftists.
Given this recent history, Mr Modi’s lavish praise stands out. Also, there is an unsaid political message here: The Union Government would like the Maoists of India to emulate their comrades in Nepal, and to give up the gun for the Electronic Voting Machine.
One wonders whether Mr Prachanda’s people still have contacts with the Maoists of India (The former can claim they never had — not in a structured sense, anyway.). If some of them do, it would not be a bad idea for them to knock sense into the renegades. One good turn deserves another. If the Indian Maoists see reason, well and good; if not, the alternative is not something the ultras should be looking forward to with delight in Mr Modi’s reign.
The Prime Minister of India realises the political flux that has characterised Nepal over the decades. Prime Ministers have come and gone in quick succession — too quick for stability to strike roots; wobbly Constituent Assemblies have done their terms; and the proposed Constitution is wracked by deep differences over many matters, primary among them being the nature of federalism. This has led to uncertainties. Few Indian observers had anticipated the victory of the Prachanda-led Maoists in the 2008 election. And few had expected it to fritter away in months the tremendous public goodwill it had gained over years of hard work at the cost of the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist leninist). Again, not many in India, and even in Nepal, had imagined the so-sudden demise of the monarchy following the 2005-06 Jana Andolan.
Therefore, while showering accolades on the Prachanda-led Maoists (though, one must be reminded yet again — without naming them), Mr Modi must have had at the back of his mind the possibility that another election in Nepal could return the UCPN(M) into the reckoning, especially now that the Maoists have recently tied up with six pro-Madhesi parties for the electoral battles ahead. India does not want to be caught in a Catch-22 situation and in a repeat of 2008.