Iraq is going through a challenging phase where its very survival as a cohesive entity has come under a grave threat from rising Islamist militancy. But neither a disintegrated nor a divided Iraq is in the world community’s interest, writes ANIl GUPTA
Iraq is back in the news again. It jumped into headlines last week when a relatively small Islamist group stormed into, one after the other, Iraqi towns in the north-east of the country, with the much larger Iraqi Army giving little or no resistance at all. To illustrate in Mosul, the second largest Iraqi town, the odds were 40:1 —3000 Iraqi troops pitted against 800 irregulars.
This, on Friday, sent the stock exchanges crumbling in many countries. Iraq is the second-largest supplier of crude oil after Saudi Arabia and has the world’s fifth-largest proven reserves; it pumps an average of about 3.5 million barrels of oil per day. Can the rest of the world, including India, remain a mute spectator to the happeningsIJ Is it a harsh reminder of shape of things to follow in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the United States and allied forces by the end of 2014 — only six months awayIJ Is Iraq heading towards disintegrationIJ
Iraq was a house of cards when the Americans left in 2011. The Shia-Sunni rift, that brought the nation to the brink of a civil war, had been left simmering, and the pot continued to boil. The issue of Kurd nationalism was also left unresolved. As a further disaster, the reins of the Government were handed over to an unpopular Shia, Nouri al-Maliki, who also turned out to be ineffective. The Shia-led Government in Baghdad is partisan and has failed to provide basic amenities like water and electricity to the citizens, let alone health and education.
It has not only alienated the Sunnis but almost forced them to rebel against the Shia-led Government and the US-trained Iraqi military. The military, interestingly, is a Shia-Sunni mix. This alienation of the Sunnis is being exploited by Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/levant (ISIS/ISIl), a Sunni terrorist group.
The ISIS is a product of the Iraq War (commonly referred to as Gulf War II). It is essentially a version of the Al Qaeda in Iraq. It was formed in 2004 and split formally with the Al Qaeda in 2014. Post the killing of Osama Bin laden, many splinter groups have emerged in place, replacing the monolithic Al Qaeda. These groups are driven by local political and sectarian dynamics and have given rise to Salafi jihadists — violent proponents of an extreme form of Islam. They are extremely cruel.
The fighting between the Iraqi Government and the terrorist outfit, the ISIS, is tearing Iraq apart. The confrontation is complicated because it has again brought to the fore the fragility in the Iraqi nation. The Kurds, so far, have not joined hands with the ISIS but are busy consolidating their hold over areas in the north and the north-east.
In a speedy offensive in the north, a small number of ISIS terrorists captured Mosul, the oil-rich second-largest city of Iraq. It then captured Tikrit, the home-town of Saddam Hussein, and Baiji, a significant oil town. In addition, a number of smaller communities, as well as military and police bases in the north-east, have fallen after meeting little resistance from the Iraqi security forces. The Kurds moved in speedily into Kirkuk to take control and protect it, after the Iraqi military abandoned it. The Iraqi forces are re-grouping around Baghdad. The house of cards seems to be collapsing rapidly.
Two-thirds of India’s crude oil requirements are met through import. Any crisis in West Asia directly affects the supply of oil to India and adds to our import bill substantially, thus, effecting our economy. It also effects our growth rate and industrial production. Alarm bells have been sounded but the panic button is yet to be pressed. “We are watchful and cautious. We are hopeful that Iraq crisis will blow over. There is no need to panic as far India is concerned. I don’t see any immediate reason for panic”, Mr Arvind Mayaram, the Union Finance Secretary, said.
A recently circulated video warns of a “caravan” of terrorists coming from Afghanistan to “liberate Kashmir”. It also carries a message read by Maulana Asim Umar, a senior leader of Al Qaeda’s Pakistan cell, asking Kashmiris “to emulate their brothers in Syria and Iraq and wage a violent jihad against India”. The authenticity of the video needs to be established but it should, nevertheless, raise the tentacles of Indian security forces and the State administration. The impending threat from Afghanistan is, in any case, giving sleepless nights to the security apparatus of India.
Is trifurcation/disintegration of Iraq on the horizonIJ The answer, in my view, is negative. Is divided Iraq in the interest of the international community and the immediate neighbourhoodIJ Once again, the answer is a loud ‘no’.
(The author is a retired Brigadier, political commentator, and security and strategic analyst)