There is keen interest because the results of the Assembly election will in many ways indicate the trend for lok Sabha poll
After the completion of the Assembly election to five States this month, the focus has shifted to the lok Sabha poll, which are just a few months away. Not only are the fortunes of incumbent Chief Ministers and prime ministerial candidates of the two national parties are at stake, but also the results could influence the morale of the UPA and the NDA in the national scene before the big fight.
The Assembly poll in Mizoram in the North-East is not attracting any national attention. The Congress returned to power by defeating the Mizo National Front in 2008. The ruling Congress is hoping that it will retain power. The BJP has only a token presence. Mizoram has just one lok Sabha seat, which was won by the Congress in 2009.
Going by the voting patterns in 2003 and 2008, it is clear that the Assembly polls in the other four States had an impact on the 2004 as well as 2009 general elections. Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan show that winning the States paved the way for their victory in lok Sabha poll too. The Congress had a distinct edge, getting 41 members elected from these States, while the BJP won only 29 seats of 72 seats.
There are some crucial factors which will determine the results this time. The new voters will be one of those. Whom will they chooseIJ What would determine the voter preferenceIJ How much impact will leaders like Mr Narendra Modi and Mr Arvind Kejriwal have on the votersIJ
Madhya Pradesh, Chhatti- sgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi are four of the seven States in the country where there is face-to-face fight between the Congress and the BJP. The total number of seats in these States and Union Territories account for about 70-plus in the 542-member lok Sabha.
In the current Assembly poll, Chhattisgarh recorded a polling percentage of over 75 per cent, Madhya Pradesh of over 71 per cent and Mizoram about 82 per cent. Rajasthan and Delhi too registered a higher voter turnout. This is being interpreted in various ways. While the Congress claims it is good for the party in the BJP-ruled States as the higher voter turnout reflects people’s disenchantment with the ruling party, the BJP looks at it as the result of younger voters coming out in favour of the saffron party.
Why are the results important this timeIJ There is keen interest because these are the polls just before the next general election. The outcome is crucial for both the BJP and the Congress who are bidding for power in 2014. It will be clear whether the Congress’s claim that their welfare schemes would help them garner voters or the anti-incumbency and the non-governance will impact the poll.
It will also be a test for Mr Modi and Mr Kejriwal, particularly in Delhi. The stakes are high for Mr Modi, as he has to prove his vote-catching capacity outside Gujarat. Modi-baiters in the BJP and outside are closely following the elections. Of course the BJP has strong leaders like Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Raman Singh. Former Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje also has her own standing in the State. It is Delhi, with no strong leader in the capital, which will give an indication as to how far Mr Modi’s perceived charisma can deliver results.
For the BJP and the Congress, it is as much a popularity test for their Chief Ministers and their capacity to fight the anti- incumbency. Will they be able to ride on their development plank as well as populist measuresIJ A good performance in the Assembly polls will certainly pave way for the alliances for the 2014 election. Most regional parties are waiting and watching keeping their options open for a post poll scenario.
The best-case scenario for the BJP is to get 4-0 to set the favourable atmosphere for the party, which is already invigorated with the leadership of Mr Modi. The next best scenario is to retain the two States and snatch one of the Congress ruled states Delhi or Rajasthan.
A 2-2 outcome in the four Hindi heartland States would suit the Congress as it could then claim that Mr Modi’s much-flaunted campaign had not yielded dividends. It could also target Mr Modi as a leader who has limited influence outside Gujarat. Mr Modi is already seen to be peaking out as he started the campaign much earlier than the Congress and has to sustain the tempo for the next few months.