The reluctance of Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi to show off in the State is understandable. The road to reach their goal of lok Sabha is long
Congress’s star campaigner RaGa (Rajiv Gandhi) and BJP’s new poster boy NaMo (Narendra Modi) have shifted their focus to Karnataka quietly to test their vote-catching ability. The feverish comparison between the two potential prime ministerial candidates has become less in the media as both have chosen a low-profile campaign. While there was expectation that Karnataka would be a battleground for the two leaders to test their charisma, neither of them has shown interest in clashing with each other before the 2014 general election. The ground reality shows that neither Mr Gandhi not Mr Modi wants to be a factor.
Why is Mr Modi, in his new role as a national leader, shying away from campaigning in Karnataka where the BJP needs all its ammunition to fight a losing battleIJ Could it be because he has nothing to gain and everything to loseIJ Mr Modi knows when to project himself and when to lie low. Karnataka is not the place for him to be seen today. He would not be in the forefront and face the criticism that Modi-magic did not work, when the party loses the State.
To the embarrassment of Mr Jagadish Shettar, the Chief Minister of Karnataka, Mr Modi had initially decided to not even campaign until he was prevailed upon to address at least a couple of rallies. Did he not avoid campaigning for the party in 2012 Uttar Pradesh poll for this reasonIJ Mr Modi doesn’t want to mess his chances for the top job by taking wrong steps.
From Mr Modi’s point of view, he has no option other than to opt for a low-profile campaign. Mr Modi is a showman and he should have something to show in Karnataka. What can he do in a State, which is beyond hopeIJ Could he talk of the Gujarat model of development when the poll issue this time appears to be lack of developmentIJ Could he talk of Hindutva when the local BJP leaders know it did not work in the recent municipal poll even in the BJP strongholds like the coastal areasIJ
The man on the street in Karnataka is vexed with the BJP Government and is itching to vote it out. The BJP has lost its base in many areas including the cities. The party split has also done extensive damage while former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa has formed his own outfit. There is no State-level leader of the stature of Mr Yeddyurappa, and there are several factions fighting for influence.
Mr Gandhi is in a better position. Karnataka used to be the citadel of the Congress. When Indira Gandhi lost every other State, Karnataka stood by her in 1977. The Congress has seen its ups and downs in these past two decades. It seems to be poised to snatch power even if it is on negative votes.
Sensing victory, Congress leaders expected Mr Gandhi to spend more time in the State, and they had even planned road shows and rallies of the kind he held in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. But the computer wizards of Mr Gandhi’s image-building group in Delhi shot down these plans and confined his campaign to just three days. This could be because, despite vigorous campaign by Mr Gandhi in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, the party did not do well.
The Congress is wary of a showdown between Mr Modi and Mr Gandhi and does not want any comparison, at least for the time being. The second thing is the next round of elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Delhi, where the Congress may not do well. Mr Gandhi would be expected to campaign in these States also and take the rubbing if the Congress loses miserably. So the best option is to localise the elections as an example for the future. Mr Gandhi would be the trump card only for the lok Sabha poll. The strategy was to allow the State leaders to confine the campaign to local issues and five years of BJP ‘misrule’. The Congress would rather avoid national issues like scams, price-rise and inflation and want these to be kept in the background. Being the second-most man in the party, Mr Gandhi can no longer avoid these, if they become poll issues.
The reluctance of Mr Gandhi and Mr Modi to show off in Karnataka is understandable. The road to their goal of lok Sabha victory is long. Although Mr Modi started his projection early, he has realised that he cannot sustain the pace for so many months. As for Mr Gandhi, things are looking up for the Congress in the State and, if the party wins Karnataka, it would enthuse the cadre and create a favourable atmosphere for the 2014 poll. Mr Modi is probably waiting for the next round of Assembly polls in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, where BJP Governments have done well.