With the interim nuclear deal, President Rouhani has successfully showcased Iran’s moderate and rational face that is poles apart from the hawkish approach of his predecessor, Ahmadinejad
In the early hours of November 24, 2013, Iran reached an interim deal with the P5+1 on its nuclear issue, ending decades of conflict and growing global concern about the way Iran was developing the nuclear technology.
The deal drew sharp and often contrasting reactions from across the world and from within Iran. The US President welcomed the deal, saying it included “substantial limitations which will help prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.” But the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it a “historic mistake.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif termed the agreement as an opportunity for the “removal of any doubts about the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear programme.” But he insisted that Iran had not given up its right to enrich uranium.
Back home, the deal has been welcomed by some sections of Iran polity, while incited negative feedback from others. There is a clear divide between the hardliners who are skeptical about the final outcome, and the moderates who have hailed the deal claiming vindication of their choice of Hassan Rouhani as the Iran President.
Reactions within Iran
Irrespective of the individual stance, it must be noted here that there is a general consensus among the Iranian leaders, specially the establishment including the parliament, that Iran should continue to pursue its nuclear programme for peaceful purposes. Nuclear enrichment programme is a matter of national pride for all Iranians, including the political elites, and they would not be surrendering their right. Nevertheless, the division over the approach to be taken in dealing with the international community is wide. While the hardliners and neo-conservatives like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, former president of Iran, seemed to favour confrontation, the centrists and reformists such as former President Mohammad Khatami, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and present President Hassan Rouhani are yearning to pursue a non-confrontational stance and could be even ready to accept some limits on the programme. The moderate conservatives, including Ali larijani (speaker of the Majlis), Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (the Mayor of Tehran), Gholam Ali Haddad (Former Speaker of Majlis and also a member of parliament) also wish to pursue a non-confrontational stance. The head of Fars News Agency and a conservative, Nezamodin Mousavi, has argued that the deal is a process, and cannot be called a big achievement or a disaster as yet. He added that “the nuclear deal is a product of ten years of resistance from the Iranian people; today, our negotiating team enjoys a trump card. It is not also a big success, but a step-by-step agreement to restore Iran’s nuclear rights.”
This interim deal is different from previous deals because for the first time the President has support from the different factions, including the Supreme leader of the country, Majlis, chairman of the Expediency Council, Hashemi Rafsanjani and former president Mohammad Khatami. The Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said: “Achievement of what you have described deserves appreciation and gratitude to the nuclear negotiators team and other contributors and can be a basis for the next wise measures.” Going a step further, he pointed out that no one should call the negotiating team as compromisers and termed the negotiators “the children of the Revolution and Islamic Republic’s agents”, who were attending to their duties through thick and thin.
Ali Akbar Velayati, the international affairs adviser to the Supreme leader, strongly supported nuclear negotiating team and said that the Iranian nuclear negotiating team is looking to safeguard the country’s rights. Iran’s parliament has also issued a statement in support of the deal and praising the foreign minister and nuclear negotiating team and emphasise upon the national unity and awareness.
Background noise
The founding father of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the first Supreme leader (1979-89) of the country, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, had opposed the development of nuclear weapons. Iran’s present Supreme leader Khamenei in February 2012 underlined during a meeting in Tehran with the director and officials of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) and nuclear scientists that the Iranian nation has never sought and will never seek nuclear weapons. He said, “The possession of nuclear weapons is a great sin, in terms of thought, theory and religious edict.” Even Iran’s first Prime Minister Mehdi Bazargan decided that Iran did not need nuclear energy, and therefore the work at Bushehr nuclear power plant was halted after the Islamic Revolution of 1979.
Following the death of Khomeini in 1989, Iran embarked on an effort to expand its civilian nuclear programme. like the Shah, Islamic Republic since the time of the presidency of Hashemi Rafsanjani has insisted that it intends to support an independent nuclear enrichment programme. However, Ahmadinejad’s presidency took a different approach. After his election as president, he immediately signalled his support for moving forward with the nuclear programme which had been temporarily halted after President Khatami had signed the Additional Protocol. Ahmadinejad’s statements on a number of occasions antagonised the US and its allies and nuclear issue became complicated day by day.
Due to the nuclear enrichment programme, Iran is kept under US unilateral economic sanctions, and a number of UNSC and EU sanctions. The US and its allies accuse Iran of using its civilian nuclear programme as a cover to develop nuclear weapons. However, the charges have been denied by Iran.
As economic sanctions have bearing on Iran’s economy, inflation shot up and Rial was declining against the US dollar and other currencies of the world. But now as Iran is ready to meet the US and its allies half way, it is an opportunity for both the parties to change their hostile approach towards each other and resurrect mutual cooperation. It is to the success of President Rouhani and his administration that a turnaround in the West’s approach is visible. Naturally, Rouhani is in high spirits for successfully showcasing Iran’s moderate and rational face that is poles apart from the hawkish approach of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Road ahead
For Iranians, news of the breakthrough in Geneva summit was a moment of joy and has given rise to new expectations that lives made difficult by economic sanctions due to the ‘clandestine’ nuclear programme would be back on track.
Rouhani insisted that Iran’s right to uranium enrichment on its soil was accepted in this nuclear deal by the international community. This has boosted the morale of the people. The president has asserted that many in the world still wished Iran’s nuclear issue would not be solved. But due to unanimity and solidarity toward the nuclear programme in the country, a deal could be reached.
Rouhani election as Iran’s President in June had raised hopes among Iranians. He had pledged greater transparency regarding its nuclear programme, and called for intensified talks with major powers. He promised that he wants “constructive interaction” with the world through a moderate policy and that his administration of “Prudence and Hope” will follow a “moderate” policy line to serve national objectives. He also said his government will take certain steps to ease the “brutal sanctions” which have been imposed against Iran. He has delivered some of his promises.
However, it must be noted that the President cannot take decision on nuclear issues and foreign policy alone. It is the Supreme leader, who decides on matters related to foreign policy and nuclear programme. While the final decision and the country’s position remains in the hand of Khamenei, but given Rouhani’s experience as the country’s chief nuclear negotiator and his popular support from the Supreme leader, Majlis and Rafsanjani and other reformist leaders, he may be able to exercise more leverage and flexibility.
The coming six months are crucial for Iran and West Asia as a whole, as it will shape up or shape out the region.
(The writer is Associate Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)